Gaston MooneyNov 2, 2022
In a listener-style submission read on air, Mooney predicted that in 2024 Republicans will hold a filibuster-proof Senate majority along with control of the House and the White House.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Steve Deace ShowHear the original
3 of 4calls landed3 hits · 1 miss · all settled
75Average accuracyout of 100, across 4 calls
30A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
1Races calledevery call on each below
0Waitingnot graded yet
What Gaston Mooney said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromSo GOP filibuster proof majority in the Senate. They will control the House and the White House in 2024.
- Where it was said
- Steve Deace Show
- The episode
- RED WEDDING: These Two Factors Could Make Dems an Endangered Species | 11/2/22
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidNov 2, 2022
- Election DayNov 5, 2024
- GradedOct 10, 2026
- 1Control of Congress“They will control the House and the White House in 2024.”
- 2GOP to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election“They will control the House and the White House in 2024.”
- 3Control of Congress“the GOP has filibuster proof majority in the Senate, White House and House control”
- 4Seat Counts“So GOP filibuster proof majority in the Senate.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| “They will control the House and the White House in 2024.”1 | Control of Congress | — | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| GOP to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election2 | Race Winners | Donald Trump won | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| “the GOP has filibuster proof majority in the Senate, White…”3 | Control of Congress | — | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| “So GOP filibuster proof majority in the Senate.”4 | Seat Counts | 53 | 0 | 20 | −40 | |
| 4 calls · 3 hits · 1 miss · all settled | 75 | 30 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive4 checkable claims — 2 control of congress, 1 race winner and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 4 have settled, averaging 75 out of 100, against 30 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
“They will control the House and the White House in 2024.”
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- result from:
- house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
- chamber:
- 2024-house
- who controls it:
- Republican
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- they said:
- Republican
- days before the vote when called:
- 733
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- the party in control going in keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- who controlled it before:
- Republican
GOP to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election
What happenedDonald Trump woncertified result100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 200
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election
- decided in the:
- electoral-college
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 733
- difficulty:
- 2
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
“the GOP has filibuster proof majority in the Senate, White House and House control”
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 200
- topic:
- elections
- result from:
- senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
- chamber:
- 2024-senate
- who controls it:
- Republican
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- Republican
- days before the vote when called:
- 733
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- the party in control going in keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- who controlled it before:
- Democratic
“So GOP filibuster proof majority in the Senate.”
What happened53called 600Miss · naive 200this call−20a naive guess=−20worse than naive×2difficulty=−40skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- election year:
- 2024
- party:
- Republican
- seats after:
- 53
- skill:
- −40
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 53
- result from:
- senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
- chamber:
- 2024-senate
- what they counted:
- seats held
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 20
- they said:
- 60
- days before the vote when called:
- 733
- difficulty:
- 2
- seats before:
- 49
- the naive guess:
- no change from the previous election
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the naive guess said:
- 49
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
75naive 30
The race in this take
every call on eachMore control of congress
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Erick-Woods Erickson · Control of Congress · Hit 100
Erickson expects a bad night for Republicans: they lose the Senate seats in North Carolina and Texas but hold the rest of the contested seats — Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Mississippi, South Carolina and Ohio — and keep Senate control, possibly even flipping Michigan. They believe the House is lost, with the GOP shedding roughly 25 seats.