Faith BottumOct 17, 2024
Bottom writes that the Montana Senate race may decide the majority and that the working-class shift and influx of conservatives give Sheehy the edge over Tester, though the race remains close.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Tangle (podcast)Hear the original
100Hit · out of 100
Tim Sheehy wonWhat happenedcertified result
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
+102Skillafter difficulty
What Faith Bottum said
The Republicanization of the working class, the importance of national issues, and the rising number of new conservatives in the state give the edge to mister Sheehy, but it's still close
- Where it was said
- Tangle (podcast)
- The episode
- SPECIAL EDITION: The Senate races.
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 17, 2024
- Election DayNov 5, 2024
- GradedOct 9, 2026
How the call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveOne checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Tim Sheehy to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
What happenedTim Sheehy woncertified result100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.02difficulty=+102skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-mt
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 102
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- give the edge to mister Sheehy, but it's still close
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Tim Sheehy
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Tim Sheehy
- days before the vote when called:
- 18
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
The race in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.