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Jonathan V. LastNov 2, 2026

Last predicted Abdul El-Sayed will win the Michigan Senate race easily, not in a close contest.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Bulwark Podcast (feed title: The Bulwark Daily)Hear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Abdul El-Sayed wonWhat happenedcalled, not yet certified
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Jonathan V. Last said

Like, he's gonna win, and I think he's gonna win by, like, running away.
Our reading: Abdul El-Sayed to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
Where it was said
The Bulwark Podcast (feed title: The Bulwark Daily)
The episode
Bill Kristol and JVL: Trump Could Be More Dangerous Post-Election
The original
Hear the original
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Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidNov 2
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Race Winners

    Abdul El-Sayed to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan

    What happenedAbdul El-Sayed woncalled, not yet certified
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2026-senate-mi
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026
    who won:
    Abdul El-Sayed
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Abdul El-Sayed
    days before the vote when called:
    0
    difficulty:
    1
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    the party they named:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?

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