Ryan Grim· Nov 1, 2024

He predicted Harris holds Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin while losing the rest of the battlegrounds, which he said would leave her at exactly 270 electoral votes, driven by suburban women.

“I think that Kamala ends up holding Pennsylvania, Michigan, in Wisconsin and losing basically everything else.”

said on air or in an interview · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar · read the original →

4 checkable claims — 3 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 4 have settled, averaging 14 out of 100, against 14.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

270They said

226What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

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4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race MarginsNov 1, 2024
“Yeah, that would give her exactly to seventy right”
Close · 56Scored 56a naive guess scored 57-1 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
-1
topic:
elections
what happened:
226
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
zero credit this far off:
100
what they counted:
electoral_votes
whose number:
Kamala Harris
accuracy:
56
baseline:
57
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
270
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
they won:
no
the naive guess:
half the electoral college
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
86
their party:
Democratic
the naive guess said:
269
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“I think that Kamala ends up holding Pennsylvania, Michigan, in Wisconsin and losing basically everything else.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-mi
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Michigan
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“I think that Kamala ends up holding Pennsylvania, Michigan, in Wisconsin and losing basically everything else.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-wi
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“I think that Kamala ends up holding Pennsylvania, Michigan, in Wisconsin and losing basically everything else.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.