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Erick TrickelSep 18, 2026

Trickel predicts a close Broncos loss decided by a late Trevor Lawrence game-winning drive.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

40Close · out of 100
Broncos 20–13What happenedcalled Jaguars by 3 · lost by 7
82.1A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
40.48This callout of 100
−80.76Skillafter difficulty

What Erick Trickel said

the Broncos drop one to the Jaguars but show they are getting the ship back on track
Our reading: Jacksonville Jaguars 27 — Broncos 24
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
Mile High Roundtable Delivers Predictions & Picks for Broncos-Jaguars
The original
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  1. SaidSep 18
  2. PlayedSep 20
  3. GradedSep 21

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 40.5 out of 100, against 82.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsJacksonville Jaguars

    Jacksonville Jaguars 27 — Broncos 24

    What happenedBroncos 20–13called Jaguars by 3 · lost by 7
    40.48Close · naive 82.1

    Closing line (Sep 20): Broncos by 2.5, total 45.5 · this 27–24 calls a Jaguars win (by 3; the line gave the Jaguars 43%) and more points (51).

    How this was scored
    score:
    13-20
    skill:
    −80.76
    they picked:
    JAX
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    40.48
    baseline:
    82.1
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    7
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    −0.52
    predicted margin:
    3
    Think this is wrong?

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