Gregg Rosenthal#39 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 10, 2025
The host sided with Tampa Bay as their favorite pick of Wild Card weekend, took the Chargers over Houston, and picked Philadelphia to beat Green Bay; they also reaffirmed their preseason picks of the Bills and Lions reaching the Super Bowl.
Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original
What Gregg Rosenthal said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI think they get back to the Divisional round.
- Where it was said
- Around the NFL (podcast)
- The episode
- NFL Wild Card Picks with Cynthia Frelund
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidJan 10, 2025
- GradedAug 17, 2026
- 1Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Commanders“I'm joining you... this was my number one pick... I think they get back to the Divisional round.”
- 2Detroit Lions to reach the Super Bowl“I had Bill's Lions, and I had Lions Eagles in the NFC Championship game, So I feel good about all that.”
- 3Buffalo Bills to reach the Super Bowl“I had Bill's Lions, and I had Lions Eagles in the NFC Championship game, So I feel good about all that.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Commanders1 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Detroit Lions to reach the Super Bowl2 | Conference Champions | PHI and KC won | 0 | 100 | −100 | |
| Buffalo Bills to reach the Super Bowl3 | Conference Champions | PHI and KC won | 50 | 100 | −50 | |
| 3 calls · 1 close call · 2 misses · all settled | 16.7 | 66.7 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive3 checkable claims — 2 conference champions and 1 game outcome pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 16.7 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Game Outcome PicksTampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Commanders
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillClosing line (Jan 12): Buccaneers by 3 · favorite pick, Buccaneers 59%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- WAS
- score:
- 23-20
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
2Conference ChampionsDetroit Lions
Detroit Lions to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedPHI and KC wonpicked DET0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×1difficulty=−100skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −100
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI, KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
3Conference ChampionsBuffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedPHI and KC wonpicked BUF50Close · naive 10050this call−100a naive guess=−50worse than naive×1difficulty=−50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −50
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI, KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- yes
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
16.7naive 66.7
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Prisco picked the Bills to win 21-14 at Minnesota.John Breech · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Breech picked the Bills to beat the Vikings on Monday night by a score of 24-17.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 62
Dajani picked the Bills to edge the Vikings 24-23.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 74
Dubin picked Buffalo to win a low-scoring Monday night game in Minnesota, 20-14.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Sullivan picked the Bills to beat the Vikings 24-17.Brandon Carney · Trade and Signing Calls · Mike Evans · Miss 0
Carney predicts Geno Smith signs with the Vikings and starts for them, that at least four of the fringe veteran quarterbacks (Tua, Kyler, Cousins, Fields, Geno) will be starters next season, and that Mike Evans stays with Tampa Bay. They also rank their top fantasy wide receivers and comments on running back landing spots and trade values.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Damonza Byrd · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says they believe New England will win in Denver even though they are taking the Broncos with the points.Nick Wright · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; they also pick New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. They call Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.Nick Wright · Conference Champions · Denver Broncos · Close 50
Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.AJ Hawk · Conference Champions · Los Angeles Rams · Close 50
Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC they stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl.Derek Murphy · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.