Colin Cowherd· Jan 29, 2026
Cowherd argues Sam Darnold belongs in the top ten of quarterbacks and predicts he'll win the Super Bowl with Seattle; he also expects Jim Harbaugh's Giants to make the playoffs next year, the Raiders to take Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 pick, and says Bill Belichick will eventually make the Hall of Fame.
“But I don't think it's crazy to say that Sam Darnold hoists a trophy. You gotta put him in the top ten.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
5 checkable claims — 1 mock draft pick, 1 playoff pick, 1 positional finishe, 1 super bowl pick and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 71.7 out of 100, against 66.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
positional finish10They said
5What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Positional FinishesSam DarnoldSeattle SeahawksJan 29, 2026
Sam Darnold to finish top 10 at his position, by passing yards
“But I don't think it's crazy to say that Sam Darnold hoists a trophy. You gotta put him in the top ten.”
Close · 58Scored 58.33a naive guess scored 100-41.67 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -41.67
- player:
- Sam Darnold
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 58.33
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 5
- actual finish:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- predicted finish:
- 10
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“They'll get Fernando Mendoza with a number one pick.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Playoff PicksNew York GiantsJan 29, 2026
New York Giants to make the playoffs
“I think Harbaugh's going to crush it with the Giants. They're going to be a playoff team next year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NYG
- skill:
- -100
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Super Bowl PicksSeattle SeahawksJan 29, 2026
Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl
“Seems like to me, hoisting a trophy in about ten twelve days. Have to reconsider where we put him.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Team Draft Slot CallsLas Vegas RaidersJan 29, 2026
Las Vegas Raiders to pick at number 1
“They'll get Fernando Mendoza with a number one pick.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 80.52+19.48 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LV
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- they picked 6 the year before
- skill:
- 19.48
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 80.52
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 31Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- John MiddlekauffGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Middlekauff expects blowout wins for Seattle over Washington and Kansas City over Miami in Week 3, picks Cincinnati to beat Pittsburgh in the AFC North matchup, and takes Tennessee over the Giants if Jameis Winston is taking snaps.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.