Colin Cowherd#54 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 29, 2026
Cowherd argues Sam Darnold belongs in the top ten of quarterbacks and predicts they'll win the Super Bowl with Seattle; they also expect Jim Harbaugh's Giants to make the playoffs next year, the Raiders to take Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 pick, and says Bill Belichick will eventually make the Hall of Fame.
Said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)Hear the original
What Colin Cowherd said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromBut I don't think it's crazy to say that Sam Darnold hoists a trophy. You gotta put him in the top ten.
- Where it was said
- The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)
- The episode
- THE HERD - Hour 1 - The reason Bill Belichick didn't get in the HOF on his first try, Sam Darnold is a top 5 QB, Jesse Minter
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidJan 29
- GradedAug 5
- 1Sam Darnold to finish top 10 at his position, by passing yards“But I don't think it's crazy to say that Sam Darnold hoists a trophy. You gotta put him in the top ten.”
- 2Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1“They'll get Fernando Mendoza with a number one pick.”
- 3New York Giants to make the playoffs“I think Harbaugh's going to crush it with the Giants. They're going to be a playoff team next year.”
- 4Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl“Seems like to me, hoisting a trophy in about ten twelve days. Have to reconsider where we put him.”
- 5Las Vegas Raiders to pick at number 1“They'll get Fernando Mendoza with a number one pick.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold to finish top 10 at his position, by passing yards1 | Positional Finishes | Finished #5 | 58.33 | 100 | −41.67 | |
| Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 12 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 1 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| New York Giants to make the playoffs3 | Playoff Picks | Missed the playoffs | 0 | 100 | −100 | |
| Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl4 | Super Bowl Picks | SEA won it | 100 | 0 | +100 | |
| Las Vegas Raiders to pick at number 15 | Team Draft Slot Calls | Picked at 1 | 100 | 80.52 | +19.48 | |
| 5 calls · 3 hits · 1 close call · 1 miss · all settled | 71.7 | 66.1 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive5 checkable claims — 1 mock draft pick, 1 playoff pick, 1 positional finish, 1 super bowl pick and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 71.7 out of 100, against 66.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
positional finishTheir call against what actually happened.
1Positional FinishesSam DarnoldSeattle Seahawks
Sam Darnold to finish top 10 at his position, by passing yards
What happenedFinished #5called #10 · by passing yards58.33Close · naive 10058.33this call−100a naive guess=−41.67worse than naive×1difficulty=−41.67skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −41.67
- player:
- Sam Darnold
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 58.33
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 5
- actual finish:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- predicted finish:
- 10
2Mock Draft PicksFernando MendozaLas Vegas Raiders
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
What happenedWent 1mocked at 1100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
New York Giants to make the playoffs
What happenedMissed the playoffs0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×1difficulty=−100skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- NYG
- skill:
- −100
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 0
4Super Bowl PicksSeattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl
What happenedSEA won itpicked SEA100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1difficulty=+100skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
5Team Draft Slot CallsLas Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas Raiders to pick at number 1
What happenedPicked at 1called 1100Hit · naive 80.52100this call−80.52a naive guess=19.48better than naive×1difficulty=+19.48skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- LV
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- they picked 6 the year before
- skill:
- 19.48
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 80.52
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
71.7naive 66.1
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 20-14 on Thursday night and takes the Packers over the Vikings 17-14 in a low-scoring Week 10 game.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders at home on Thursday night, projecting a 20-14 final score.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picked the Giants to beat the Commanders at home in the Thursday night Week 10 game, 23-14, citing New York's dominant front seven containing Jayden Daniels.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin predicted final scores for seven Week 10 games, taking the Giants over the Commanders, the Lions, Chiefs, Packers, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens to win their respective matchups.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Simms · Mock Draft Picks · Malachi Corley · Miss 11
Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore.Philip Hughes · Mock Draft Picks · Kyle Kennard · Miss 34
Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection.Blaine Grisak · Mock Draft Picks · Brian Thomas Jr. · Hit 84
Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.