Amy WalterOct 20, 2024
Walter said Trump would carry Montana by roughly twice their Ohio margin, with Ohio likely going to Trump by about 10 points, and they stood behind Cook's ratings of Montana's Senate race as Lean Republican and Nebraska's as Likely Republican.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Pod Save AmericaHear the original
4 of 4calls landed4 hits · all settled
97Average accuracyout of 100, across 4 calls
67.1A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
4Races calledevery call on each below
0Waitingnot graded yet
What Amy Walter said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromTrump is gonna win the state of Montana by probably twice as much as he will win Ohio.
- Where it was said
- Pod Save America
- The episode
- Can Dems Sweep the 2024 Elections?
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 20, 2024
- Election DayNov 5, 2024
- GradedOct 9, 2026
- 1Fisher to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska“I think you guys have Fisher as a lean Republican. Or is that right? Yeah. I think, we have an unlikely Likely. Right?”
- 2Republican to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana“the Cook Political Report moving Jon Tester from a toss-up race to a lean Republican race. ... And I assume you agree with that that assessment about what changes this It it it is.”
- 3Trump to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Montana“Trump is gonna win the state of Montana by probably twice as much as he will win Ohio.”
- 4Trump at 10 points in the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Ohio“how well Sherrod Brown has been holding on in a state that Trump's probably gonna carry by 10 points”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fisher to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska1 | Race Winners | Deb Fischer won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Republican to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana2 | Race Winners | Tim Sheehy won | 100 | 0 | +102 | |
| Trump to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Montana3 | Race Winners | Donald Trump won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Trump at 10 points in the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Ohio4 | Race Margins | Donald Trump won | 87.9 | 68.2 | +20.09 | |
| 4 calls · 4 hits · all settled | 97 | 67.1 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive4 checkable claims — 3 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 4 have settled, averaging 97 out of 100, against 67.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Fisher to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska
What happenedDeb Fischer woncertified result100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.02difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-ne
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- Likely
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Deb Fischer
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Deb Fischer
- days before the vote when called:
- 16
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
Republican to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
What happenedTim Sheehy woncertified result100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.02difficulty=+102skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-mt
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 102
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- lean Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Tim Sheehy
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Tim Sheehy
- days before the vote when called:
- 16
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
Trump to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Montana
What happenedDonald Trump woncertified result100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.02difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-mt
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Montana
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 16
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
Trump at 10 points in the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Ohio
What happenedDonald Trump won87.9Hit · naive 68.287.9this call−68.2a naive guess=19.7better than naive×1.02difficulty=+20.09skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- race:
- 2024-president-oh
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 20.09
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 11.21
- in their words:
- probably gonna carry by 10 points
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- zero credit this far off:
- 10
- what they counted:
- margin in points
- whose number:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 87.9
- baseline:
- 68.2
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Ohio
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- 10
- days before the vote when called:
- 16
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- they won:
- yes
- the naive guess:
- the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the certified margin:
- 11.21
- their party:
- Republican
- the naive guess said:
- 8.03
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
97naive 67.1
The races in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.