Daniel Jeremiah· Feb 16, 2026
In a joint top-10 mock draft, Jeremiah gave the Raiders quarterback Mendoza first overall, Arizona tackle Mali Noah at No. 3, the Giants receiver Carneal Tate at No. 5, Washington's Ruben Bain at No. 7 and Makai Lemon to the Chiefs at No. 9. He also floated McCoy from Tennessee going to Dallas at 12 and Malachi Fields late in the first round.
“Mendoza makes too much sense for Vegas. I don't think they pass on him with the first pick.”
said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
8 checkable claims — 7 mock draft picks and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 14 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
7 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 60.1 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
8 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksMalachi FieldsFeb 16, 2026
Malachi Fields to be picked “late in the first round” (picks 1–32)
“I put Malachi Fields in there. Okay, late in the first round to a team that could be looking for a little size at the wide receiver position”
Miss · 16Scored 16.21 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 97.14 against a shuffle’s 50+47.14 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 47.14
- player:
- Malachi Fields
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 16.21
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 74
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 16.21
- predicted pick:
- late in the first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 97.14
- Mock Draft PicksCarnell TateNew York GiantsFeb 16, 2026
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 5
“I ended up going with Carneal Tate... So I want I'm gonna go Tate to five.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 97.14 against a shuffle’s 50+47.14 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 47.14
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 97.14
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“So first chick got the Vegas go Mendoza that they need the quarterback... Mendoza makes too much sense for Vegas. I don't think they pass on him with the first pick.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 97.14 against a shuffle’s 50+47.14 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 47.14
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 97.14
- Mock Draft PicksJermod McCoyDallas CowboysFeb 16, 2026
Jermod McCoy to be picked at number 12
“What if I told you that the secondary though, that if they took McCoy from Tennessee... arguably the best corner in the draft or right there at the best corner of the draft of twelve?”
Miss · 2Scored 2.12 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 97.14 against a shuffle’s 50+47.14 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 47.14
- player:
- Jermod McCoy
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 2.12
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 101
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 2.12
- predicted pick:
- 12
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 97.14
- Mock Draft PicksFrancis MauigoaArizona CardinalsFeb 16, 2026
Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 3
“I get to Arizona... Mali Noah out of Miami can plug right in at right tackle.”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 97.14 against a shuffle’s 50+47.14 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 47.14
- player:
- Francis Mauigoa
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 73.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 73.84
- predicted pick:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 97.14
- Mock Draft PicksMakai LemonKansas City ChiefsFeb 16, 2026
Makai Lemon to be picked at number 9
“All right, I'm up with the Kansas City Chiefs... I'm gonna take Mikyle Lemon. He's just too good of a football player”
Close · 62Scored 62.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 97.14 against a shuffle’s 50+47.14 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 47.14
- player:
- Makai Lemon
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 62.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 20
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 62.09
- predicted pick:
- 9
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 97.14
- Mock Draft PicksRueben BainWashington CommandersFeb 16, 2026
Rueben Bain to be picked at number 7
“I get to Washington here, Washington coming up at pick number seven, I'm gonna go with Baine.”
Close · 71Scored 70.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 97.14 against a shuffle’s 50+47.14 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 47.14
- player:
- Rueben Bain
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 70.71
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 15
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 70.71
- predicted pick:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 97.14
- Trade and Signing CallsTua TagovailoaFeb 16, 2026
Tua Tagovailoa to move
“I'm sure they're gonna do the same thing with Tua, whether or not they could find a trade partner, which may be difficult, or you just release them.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Jake ArthurScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City.
- Zach HicksScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Hicks predicts a lower-scoring, field-goal-heavy game with the Chiefs beating the Colts 23-19, citing Indianapolis' red-zone success against Kansas City historically.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.
- Scott BogmanMock Draft Picks · Olaivavega IoaneClose · 71He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks.
- Steve MenschMock Draft Picks · Caleb LomuClose · 62Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17.