Clay Travis#15 of 21 election pundits · Nov 4, 2022
Travis stuck with their New Year's prediction that Republicans would gain 25 House seats and 3 Senate seats in the midterms. They also predicted Kari Lake would win the Arizona governorship comfortably and that Eli Crane was likely to win their Arizona congressional race.
Said on air or in an interview · The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton ShowHear the original
1 of 4calls landed1 hit · 3 misses · all settled
35Average accuracyout of 100, across 4 calls
33.8A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2Races calledevery call on each below
What Clay Travis said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromSo I'm saying twenty five in the House and three in the Senate.
- Where it was said
- The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
- The episode
- Daily Review with Clay and Buck - Nov 4 2022
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidNov 4, 2022
- Election DayNov 8, 2022
- GradedOct 9, 2026
- 1Seat Counts“they would pick up three seats in the Senate... So I'm saying twenty five in the House and three in the Senate.”
- 2Eli Crane to win the 2022 U.S. House election in Arizona's district 2“Eli Crane, Special Forces former member who is running in an Arizona's Navy Seal... he is going to be with us at two forty five and is likely to become a congressman.”
- 3Kari Lake to win the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election“Carry Lake's gonna win Arizona comfortably in four days.”
- 4Seat Counts“I thought that Republicans would pick up twenty five seats in the House and that they would pick up three seats in the Senate... So I'm saying twenty five in the House and three in the Senate.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| “they would pick up three seats in the Senate... So I'm saying…”1 | Seat Counts | −1 | 20 | 80 | −60 | |
| Eli Crane to win the 2022 U.S. House election in Arizona's district 22 | Race Winners | Eli Crane won | 100 | 0 | +100 | |
| Kari Lake to win the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election3 | Race Winners | Katie Hobbs won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| “I thought that Republicans would pick up twenty five seats in…”4 | Seat Counts | 9 | 20 | 55 | −35 | |
| 4 calls · 1 hit · 3 misses · all settled | 35 | 33.8 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive4 checkable claims — 2 race winners and 2 seat counts — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 4 have settled, averaging 35 out of 100, against 33.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
3They said
-1What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
“they would pick up three seats in the Senate... So I'm saying twenty five in the House and three in the Senate.”
What happened−1called 320Miss · naive 8020this call−80a naive guess=−60worse than naive×1difficulty=−60skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- election year:
- 2022
- party:
- Republican
- seats after:
- 49
- skill:
- −60
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- −1
- result from:
- senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
- chamber:
- 2022-senate
- what they counted:
- net seats
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 80
- they said:
- 3
- days before the vote when called:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- seats before:
- 50
- the naive guess:
- no change from the previous election
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the naive guess said:
- 0
Eli Crane to win the 2022 U.S. House election in Arizona's district 2
What happenedEli Crane woncertified result100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1difficulty=+100skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2022-house-az-02
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2022
- who won:
- Eli Crane
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2022 U.S. House election in Arizona's district 2
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Eli Crane
- days before the vote when called:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
Kari Lake to win the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election
What happenedKatie Hobbs woncalled Kari Lake0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2022-governor-az
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2022-governor
- who won:
- Katie Hobbs
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Kari Lake
- days before the vote when called:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
“I thought that Republicans would pick up twenty five seats in the House and that they would pick up three seats in the Senate... So I'm saying twenty five in the House and three in the Senate.”
What happened9called 2520Miss · naive 5520this call−55a naive guess=−35worse than naive×1difficulty=−35skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- election year:
- 2022
- party:
- Republican
- seats after:
- 222
- skill:
- −35
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 9
- result from:
- house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
- chamber:
- 2022-house
- what they counted:
- net seats
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 55
- they said:
- 25
- days before the vote when called:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- seats before:
- 213
- the naive guess:
- no change from the previous election
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the naive guess said:
- 0
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
35naive 33.8
The races in this take
every call on eachMore seat counts
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Ben Shapiro · Seat Counts · Miss 20
On election-day 2022, Shapiro predicted Republicans would end up with 53 to 54 Senate seats and thus a Senate majority, with Blake Masters winning Arizona and Adam Laxalt taking Nevada, while expressing doubt about New Hampshire. They also said Brian Kemp would crush Stacey Abrams in Georgia's governor's race and that a red wave would carry Republicans in the House.Steve Deace · Seat Counts · Miss 0
On the eve of the midterms Deace projected a 42-seat Republican gain in the House and dismissed the idea that Republicans could take the House without also taking the Senate. They also expected Kari Lake to win the Arizona governorship and suggested Laxalt would win Nevada's Senate race even if their margin were squeezed.