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Eric CohenOct 23, 2026

Cohen predicts the Falcons upset the undefeated 49ers 27-24 in Atlanta, ending San Francisco's unbeaten start.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

86Hit · out of 100
Falcons 29–20What happenedcalled Falcons by 3 · won by 9
77.89A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
85.71This callout of 100
+13.06Skillafter difficulty

What Eric Cohen said

San Francisco's unbeaten start comes to an end.
Our reading: Atlanta Falcons 27 — 49ers 24
Where it was published
CBS Sports
The piece
NFL Week 7 odds, predictions, expert picks: Who wins Ravens-Bengals AFC North showdown? Texans keep rolling?
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidOct 23
  2. PlayedOct 25
  3. GradedOct 25

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 85.7 out of 100, against 77.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsAtlanta Falcons

    Atlanta Falcons 27 — 49ers 24

    What happenedFalcons 29–20called Falcons by 3 · won by 9
    85.71Hit · naive 77.89
    85.71this call77.89a naive guess7.82better than naive1.67difficulty+13.06skill

    Closing line (Oct 25): 49ers by 2.5, total 49.5 · this 27–24 calls a Falcons win (by 3; the line gave the Falcons 42%) and more points (51).

    How this was scored
    score:
    20-29
    skill:
    13.06
    they picked:
    ATL
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    85.71
    baseline:
    77.89
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    9
    weeks left when called:
    12
    naive home margin:
    −0.28
    predicted margin:
    3
    Think this is wrong?

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