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Shanna McCarriston#10 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 17, 2026

They pick the Jaguars to beat the Texans in their London matchup, forecasting a comfortable 30-13 win even though they expect Houston to make the divisional game competitive.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

17Miss · out of 100
Texans 34–31What happenedcalled Jaguars by 17 · lost by 3
42.86A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
16.67This callout of 100
#10Shanna McCarriston’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Shanna McCarriston said

This one should go to the Jaguars, who have proven to be one of the top AFC teams this season.
Our reading: Jacksonville Jaguars 30 — Texans 13
Where it was published
CBS Sports
The piece
Texans vs. Jaguars prediction: Marvin Harrison Jr. makes Houston debut in London
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidOct 17
  2. PlayedOct 18
  3. GradedOct 18

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 16.7 out of 100, against 42.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsJacksonville Jaguars

    Jacksonville Jaguars 30 — Texans 13

    What happenedTexans 34–31called Jaguars by 17 · lost by 3
    16.67Miss · naive 42.86
    16.67this call42.86a naive guess−26.19worse than naive1.72difficulty−45.05skill

    Closing line (Oct 18): Jaguars by 2.5, total 42.5 · this 30–13 calls a bigger Jaguars win (by 17) and more points (43).

    How this was scored
    score:
    34-31
    skill:
    −45.05
    they picked:
    JAX
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    16.67
    baseline:
    42.86
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    13
    naive home margin:
    0
    predicted margin:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

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