Lance Zierlein#11 of 87 NFL pundits · Apr 24, 2026
Zierlein praised the Texans' first-round trade-up for guard Keelan Rutledge, said Francis Manoa has a chance to be a Pro Bowl guard, mocked specific players to the Texans on Day 2, predicted Kevon Thibodeaux will not get another contract with the Giants (only one more year), compared Caleb Downs' ceiling to Jalen Petrie, and predicted the Rams will draft much higher than 13 next year.
Said on air, transcribed by us · John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)Hear the original
What Lance Zierlein said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI gave them a tackle in the first round because somebody at NFL Network convinced me.
- Where it was said
- John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)
- The episode
- 04/24 Hour 1: Texans move up to draft Guard Keylan Rutledge (Georgia Tech) in 1st round + Who do the Texans pick tonight for round 2, picks 38 and 59
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidApr 24
- GradedAug 14
- 1Christen Miller to be picked at number 38“with the first pick of the second round that they have, pick number 38, I passed on Caden McDonald and gave him Kristen Miller, another defensive tackle out of Georgia”
- 2Kyle Louis to be picked “the next pick the Texans have in the second round” (picks 33–64)“The next pick, that the Texans have in the second round... I finally settled in on Kyle Lewis, the, linebacker from Pitt.”
- 3Kyle Louis to be 1st on the depth chart“what he would do is come in as a subpackage defender early on for the Texans. And I think eventually, he'd be the starter”
- 4Kayvon Thibodeaux to move to New York Giants“Thibodeaux is gonna be gone. I don't even think he gets another contract.”
- 5Los Angeles Rams to pick “They're gonna draft a lot higher”“13 is as high as they're gonna they're not drafting 13 next year. They're gonna draft a lot higher.”
- 6Francis Mauigoa to make Pro Bowl“who was the first, offensive lineman taken, who's a right tackle, who they're gonna move down the guard, which I think he's got a chance to be a Pro Bowl guard”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christen Miller to be picked at number 381 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 42 | 84.09 | 50 | — | |
| Kyle Louis to be picked “the next pick the Texans have in the second round” (picks 33–64)2 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 138 | 4.05 | 50 | — | |
| Kyle Louis to be 1st on the depth chart3 | Depth Chart Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux to move to New York Giants4 | Trade and Signing Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Los Angeles Rams to pick “They're gonna draft a lot higher”5 | Team Draft Slot Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Francis Mauigoa to make Pro Bowl6 | Pro Bowl and All-Pro Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 6 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · 4 waiting | 44.1 | 50 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive6 checkable claims — 2 mock draft picks, 1 depth chart call, 1 pro bowl and all-pro call, 1 team draft slot call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 44.1 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
1Mock Draft PicksChristen MillerHouston Texans
Christen Miller to be picked at number 38
What happenedWent 42mocked at 3884.09Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Christen Miller
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 42
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- 38
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
2Mock Draft PicksKyle LouisHouston Texans
Kyle Louis to be picked “the next pick the Texans have in the second round” (picks 33–64)
What happenedWent 1384.05Miss · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Kyle Louis
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 4.05
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 138
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 4.05
- predicted pick:
- the next pick the Texans have in the second round (picks 33–64)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
3Depth Chart CallsKyle LouisHouston Texans
Kyle Louis to be 1st on the depth chart
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
4Trade and Signing CallsKayvon ThibodeauxNew York Giants
Kayvon Thibodeaux to move to New York Giants
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
5Team Draft Slot CallsLos Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams to pick “They're gonna draft a lot higher”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
6Pro Bowl and All-Pro CallsFrancis Mauigoa
Francis Mauigoa to make Pro Bowl
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
44.1naive 50
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 20-14 on Thursday night and takes the Packers over the Vikings 17-14 in a low-scoring Week 10 game.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders at home on Thursday night, projecting a 20-14 final score.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picked the Giants to beat the Commanders at home in the Thursday night Week 10 game, 23-14, citing New York's dominant front seven containing Jayden Daniels.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin predicted final scores for seven Week 10 games, taking the Giants over the Commanders, the Lions, Chiefs, Packers, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens to win their respective matchups.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Simms · Mock Draft Picks · Malachi Corley · Miss 11
Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore.Philip Hughes · Mock Draft Picks · Kyle Kennard · Miss 34
Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Reviewing Week 7 college games, Campbell projects a slate of draft outcomes: Tennessee's Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick in 2026, Alabama's Bray Hubbard as a Day 2 pick and Yhonzae Pierre as a potential first-rounder, Jeremiah Smith as one of the very first players drafted, Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in the 2027 draft, Colin Simmons and Trevor Goosby as top-10 picks, and Jadan Baugh as a first-round pick.