Lance Zierlein· Apr 24, 2026
Zierlein praised the Texans' first-round trade-up for guard Keelan Rutledge, said Francis Manoa has a chance to be a Pro Bowl guard, mocked specific players to the Texans on Day 2, predicted Kevon Thibodeaux will not get another contract with the Giants (only one more year), compared Caleb Downs' ceiling to Jalen Petrie, and predicted the Rams will draft much higher than 13 next year.
“I gave them a tackle in the first round because somebody at NFL Network convinced me.”
said on air, transcribed by us · John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast) · read the original →
6 checkable claims — 2 mock draft picks, 1 depth chart call, 1 pro bowl and all-pro call, 1 team draft slot call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 44.1 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksChristen MillerHouston TexansApr 24, 2026
Christen Miller to be picked at number 38
“with the first pick of the second round that they have, pick number 38, I passed on Caden McDonald and gave him Kristen Miller, another defensive tackle out of Georgia”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Christen Miller
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 42
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- 38
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksKyle LouisHouston TexansApr 24, 2026
Kyle Louis to be picked “the next pick the Texans have in the second round” (picks 33–64)
“The next pick, that the Texans have in the second round... I finally settled in on Kyle Lewis, the, linebacker from Pitt.”
Miss · 4Scored 4.05a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Kyle Louis
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 4.05
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 138
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 4.05
- predicted pick:
- the next pick the Texans have in the second round (picks 33–64)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Depth Chart CallsKyle LouisHouston TexansApr 24, 2026
Kyle Louis to be 1st on the depth chart
“what he would do is come in as a subpackage defender early on for the Texans. And I think eventually, he'd be the starter”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Team Draft Slot CallsLos Angeles RamsApr 24, 2026
Los Angeles Rams to pick “They're gonna draft a lot higher”
“13 is as high as they're gonna they're not drafting 13 next year. They're gonna draft a lot higher.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Kayvon Thibodeaux to move to New York Giants
“Thibodeaux is gonna be gone. I don't even think he gets another contract.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Pro Bowl and All-Pro CallsFrancis MauigoaApr 24, 2026
Francis Mauigoa to make Pro Bowl
“who was the first, offensive lineman taken, who's a right tackle, who they're gonna move down the guard, which I think he's got a chance to be a Pro Bowl guard”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Rogers made his own Week 2 calls, taking the Packers, Eagles (by at least 10), Panthers (by at least a field goal), Cowboys (by at least six), Chargers, Chiefs and Rams to win. He also noted Baltimore was his Super Bowl pick and said it wouldn't shock him if Jacksonville hosted the AFC Championship Game.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 57Simms went through every Week 2 game with predicted final scores, picking the Texans, Bears, Steelers (as an upset), Packers, Ravens, Eagles, Buccaneers, Panthers, Jaguars, Seahawks, Cowboys, 49ers, Chargers, Chiefs and Rams to win. He also reiterated that Denver was his preseason Super Bowl pick while predicting the Broncos would fall to 0-2.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Previewing Week 2, Long called New England a spot to bounce back against Pittsburgh, projected a 27-14 Patriots win, saw Eagles-Titans as a 23-10 grinder, liked the Rams' spot Monday night against the Giants, and wrote down a Bills 31, Lions 23 final for the Thursday nighter.
- Phil SimmsGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsMiss · 0Phil Simms said the Giants can hang with and beat the Rams in their Monday night matchup, citing the Rams' sluggish showing in Australia and the Giants' offensive versatility.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · New York GiantsHit · 98Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.