Scott BogmanJun 29, 2025
Bogman likes Ricky Pearsall over the other 49ers receivers, picks Keon Coleman as their wide receiver breakout, backs Quinshawn Judkins to carry Cleveland's workload (ranking them RB27), and touts Caleb Williams' upside as a late-round quarterback.
Said on air or in an interview · FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)Hear the original
What Scott Bogman said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromHe's going so late in drafts. I will be taking him everywhere.
- Where it was said
- FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)
- The episode
- FantasyPros - BREAKOUTS! | Fantasy Football Players Who Will Dominate In 2025 (Ep. 1600)
- The original
- Hear the original
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The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidJun 29, 2025
- GradedAug 7–19, 2026
- 1Caleb Williams to outplay his draft cost (He's currently at thirteen)“There's just so much meat on the bone here for kid Williams to grow. He's currently at thirteen. I think he's a great like first QB to take or your highest QB two.”
- 2Quinshon Judkins to outplay his draft cost (His ECR is currently I believe running back twenty eight)“But let's not forget about Judkins... His ECR is currently I believe running back twenty eight. I only have him one spot higher at twenty seven.”
- 3Keon Coleman to outplay his draft cost (He's going so late in drafts)“my pick here is Keon Coleman... He's going so late in drafts. I will be taking him everywhere.”
- 4Quinshon Judkins to be 1st on the depth chart“So I'm really excited to see him carry the workload.”
- 5Fantasy Rankings“I only have him one spot higher at twenty seven.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams to outplay his draft cost (He's currently at thirteen)1 | Sleeper Calls | — | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| Quinshon Judkins to outplay his draft cost (His ECR is currently I believe running back twenty eight)2 | Sleeper Calls | — | 0 | 100 | −200 | |
| Keon Coleman to outplay his draft cost (He's going so late in drafts)3 | Sleeper Calls | — | 0 | 100 | −200 | |
| Quinshon Judkins to be 1st on the depth chart4 | Depth Chart Calls | No. 1 | 100 | 91.67 | +16.67 | |
| “I only have him one spot higher at twenty seven.”5 | Fantasy Rankings | — | — | — | — | |
| 5 calls · 2 hits · 2 misses · 1 waiting | 50 | 72.9 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive5 checkable claims — 3 sleeper calls, 1 depth chart call and 1 fantasy ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 5 have settled so far, averaging 50 out of 100, against 72.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Sleeper CallsCaleb WilliamsChicago Bears
Caleb Williams to outplay his draft cost (He's currently at thirteen)
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- He's currently at thirteen
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- had to beat:
- QB16
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- QB5
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
2Sleeper CallsQuinshon JudkinsCleveland Browns
Quinshon Judkins to outplay his draft cost (His ECR is currently I believe running back twenty eight)
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×2difficulty=−200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- His ECR is currently I believe running back twenty eight
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Quinshon Judkins
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB26
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
3Sleeper CallsKeon ColemanBuffalo Bills
Keon Coleman to outplay his draft cost (He's going so late in drafts)
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×2difficulty=−200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- He's going so late in drafts
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Keon Coleman
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR60
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR62
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
4Depth Chart CallsQuinshon JudkinsCleveland Browns
Quinshon Judkins to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by rushing yards100Hit · naive 91.67100this call−91.67a naive guess=8.33better than naive×2difficulty=+16.67skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- CLE
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Quinshon Judkins
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“I only have him one spot higher at twenty seven.”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
50naive 72.9
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
John Middlekauff · Draft Bust Calls · Caleb Williams · Miss 0
Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. They are pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying they'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. They also see Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Prisco picked the Bills to win 21-14 at Minnesota.John Breech · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Breech picked the Bills to beat the Vikings on Monday night by a score of 24-17.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 62
Dajani picked the Bills to edge the Vikings 24-23.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 74
Dubin picked Buffalo to win a low-scoring Monday night game in Minnesota, 20-14.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Sullivan picked the Bills to beat the Vikings 24-17.
More sleeper calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Derek Brown · Sleeper Calls · Travis Hunter · Hit 100
Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave their own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them.Chris Welsh · Sleeper Calls · Tyler Warren · Hit 100
Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.Pat Fitzmaurice · Sleeper Calls · Rashee Rice · Miss 0
Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (their WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (their QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.Joe Pisapia · Sleeper Calls · Tyreek Hill · Miss 0
Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: they passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.