Patrick ClaybonSep 3, 2025
Claybon picked the Ravens to beat the Packers in the Super Bowl, took the Dolphins as their Week 1 survivor pick along with liking the Bucs and Cardinals in their openers, and said Buffalo is making the playoffs.
Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original
What Patrick Claybon said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI'm picking to Baltimore Ravens to the super Bowl again ... I've got Ravens Overpacker.
- Where it was said
- Around the NFL (podcast)
- The episode
- 2025 NFL Week 1 Preview and Super Bowl Picks
- The original
- Hear the original
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- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidSep 3, 2025
- GradedAug 5–17, 2026
- 1Baltimore Ravens to reach the Super Bowl“I'm picking to Baltimore Ravens to the super Bowl again”
- 2Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Atlanta Falcons“I like the Bucks this one.”
- 3Green Bay Packers to reach the Super Bowl“So I will have them going to the Super Bowl and losing for the third consecutive year.”
- 4Buffalo Bills to make the playoffs“I look, Buffalo is going to the playoffs.”
- 5Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl“I'm picking to Baltimore Ravens to the super Bowl again ... I've got Ravens Overpacker.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens to reach the Super Bowl1 | Conference Champions | NE and SEA won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Atlanta Falcons2 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| Green Bay Packers to reach the Super Bowl3 | Conference Champions | NE and SEA won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Buffalo Bills to make the playoffs4 | Playoff Picks | Made the playoffs | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl5 | Super Bowl Picks | SEA won it | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 calls · 2 hits · 3 misses · all settled | 40 | 20 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive5 checkable claims — 2 conference champions, 1 game outcome pick, 1 playoff pick and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 40 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Conference ChampionsBaltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked BAL0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE, SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
2Game Outcome PicksTampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Atlanta Falcons
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillClosing line (Sep 7): Buccaneers by 1.5 · a toss-up, Buccaneers 51%, Falcons 49%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- TB
- score:
- 23-20
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- ATL
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
3Conference ChampionsGreen Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked GB0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE, SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
Buffalo Bills to make the playoffs
What happenedMade the playoffs100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- BUF
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
5Super Bowl PicksBaltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl
What happenedSEA won itpicked BAL0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
40naive 20
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Prisco picked the Bills to win 21-14 at Minnesota.John Breech · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Breech picked the Bills to beat the Vikings on Monday night by a score of 24-17.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 62
Dajani picked the Bills to edge the Vikings 24-23.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 74
Dubin picked Buffalo to win a low-scoring Monday night game in Minnesota, 20-14.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Sullivan picked the Bills to beat the Vikings 24-17.Brandon Carney · Trade and Signing Calls · Mike Evans · Miss 0
Carney predicts Geno Smith signs with the Vikings and starts for them, that at least four of the fringe veteran quarterbacks (Tua, Kyler, Cousins, Fields, Geno) will be starters next season, and that Mike Evans stays with Tampa Bay. They also rank their top fantasy wide receivers and comments on running back landing spots and trade values.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Damonza Byrd · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says they believe New England will win in Denver even though they are taking the Broncos with the points.Nick Wright · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; they also pick New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. They call Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.Nick Wright · Conference Champions · Denver Broncos · Close 50
Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.AJ Hawk · Conference Champions · Los Angeles Rams · Close 50
Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC they stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl.Derek Murphy · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.