Lance Zierlein· Sep 11, 2026
Lance picked the Texans to beat the Bills in the season opener, settling on a final score of 23-17 after initially saying 23-16.
“Texans beat him, 23 to 16. Okay. 23. No. That's four scores. I'm gonna go I'll go twenty three seventeen.”
said on air, transcribed by us · John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast) · read the original →
One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 47.6 out of 100, against 36.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
The game in this take
- Bills at Texans 46 calls
1 checkable claim in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Score PredictionsHouston TexansSep 11, 2026
Houston Texans 23 — Bills 17
“Texans beat him, 23 to 16. Okay. 23. No. That's four scores. I'm gonna go I'll go twenty three seventeen.”
Close · 48Scored 47.62a naive guess scored 36.83+21.59 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 36-31
- skill:
- 21.59
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 47.62
- baseline:
- 36.83
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- -0.53
- predicted margin:
- 6
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Houston TexansClose · 48Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Gregg RosenthalGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Outside of his spread picks, Rosenthal referenced his season-long pick of the Texans to win the Super Bowl and said he expects Houston to beat the Colts on Sunday.
- Jordan DajaniScore Predictions · Houston TexansClose · 40Dajani gave final-score predictions for eight Week 3 games, picking the Packers, Bengals, Jaguars, Texans, Buccaneers (upset), Ravens, Broncos (upset) and Eagles to win.
- Jared DubinScore Predictions · Houston TexansClose · 45Dubin gave final-score predictions for the same eight Week 3 games, picking the Packers, Bengals, Jaguars, Texans, Vikings, Ravens, Rams and Eagles.
- Richard ShermanScore Predictions · Houston TexansClose · 48Sherman picked winners and several exact scores across the Week 3 slate, favoring Seattle, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Detroit, Green Bay, Carolina, New Orleans, Baltimore, the Rams, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Kansas City, Minnesota, the Giants, Jacksonville and Houston, and named Kenneth Walker his MVP.
More score predictions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 10Simms picked the Packers to beat the Falcons in the Thursday night game by a low score, expecting a defensive struggle.
- Jake ArthurScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City.
- Zach HicksScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Hicks predicts a lower-scoring, field-goal-heavy game with the Chiefs beating the Colts 23-19, citing Indianapolis' red-zone success against Kansas City historically.
- Nate TiceScore Predictions · Cincinnati BengalsClose · 74Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Matt HarmonScore Predictions · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.