Lance Zierlein#11 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 11, 2026
Lance picked the Texans to beat the Bills in the season opener, settling on a final score of 23-17 after initially saying 23-16.
Said on air, transcribed by us · John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)Hear the original
What Lance Zierlein said
Texans beat him, 23 to 16. Okay. 23. No. That's four scores. I'm gonna go I'll go twenty three seventeen.
- Where it was said
- John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)
- The episode
- 9.11 Hour 3 - Beat the Warehouse live + 5 Star gives 5 Star picks
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 11
- PlayedSep 13
- GradedSep 15
How the call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveOne checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 47.6 out of 100, against 36.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
Score PredictionsHouston Texans
Houston Texans 23 — Bills 17
What happenedBills 36–31called Texans by 6 · lost by 547.62Close · naive 36.8347.62this call−36.83a naive guess=10.79better than naive×2difficulty=+21.59skillClosing line (Sep 13): Bills by 1.5, total 44.5 · this 23–17 calls a Texans win (by 6; the line gave the Texans 50%) and fewer points (40).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 36-31
- skill:
- 21.59
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 47.62
- baseline:
- 36.83
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- naive home margin:
- −0.53
- predicted margin:
- 6
The game in this take
every pundit’s pick on eachWho this take is about
Others on the same people
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Rogers picked straight-up winners in every Week 9 game, agreeing with Simms on all of them, and gave a 24-20 Bills score over the Vikings on Monday night.Nick Wright · Score Predictions · Houston Texans · Hit 83
Wright made several outright game calls for Week 9 alongside their spread picks: Kansas City beating the Jets 31-20, Detroit winning at Miami, New England edging Green Bay by a field goal or so, Carolina winning outright over Denver, and Houston blowing out the Chargers 27-12.
More score predictions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 20-14 on Thursday night and takes the Packers over the Vikings 17-14 in a low-scoring Week 10 game.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders at home on Thursday night, projecting a 20-14 final score.