Tyler Sullivan#27 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 16, 2026
Picks the Colts to beat the Titans 24-20, arguing the line is too big for a divisional game given Indianapolis' own offensive and defensive shortcomings.
Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original
What Tyler Sullivan said
So, for as bad as the Titans offense has been this season, Indy isn't that far off, so I'll gladly put the full touchdown in my back pocket.
- Where it was published
- Sports Illustrated
- The piece
- Titans vs. Colts Expert Game Picks: Tennessee Projected to Fall to an AFC South Rival For Second Straight Week
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 16
- PlayedOct 18
- GradedOct 18
How the call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveOne checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 45.2 out of 100, against 35.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
Score PredictionsIndianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts 24 — Titans 20
What happenedTitans 26–20called Colts by 4 · lost by 645.24Close · naive 35.7145.24this call−35.71a naive guess=9.53better than naive×1.72difficulty=+16.38skillClosing line (Oct 18): Colts by 6.5, total 43.5 · this 24–20 calls a closer game (Colts by 4) and more points (44).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 26-20
- skill:
- 16.38
- they picked:
- IND
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 45.24
- baseline:
- 35.71
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 13
- naive home margin:
- 0
- predicted margin:
- 4
The game in this take
every pundit’s pick on eachWho this take is about
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