Lance Zierlein#11 of 87 NFL pundits · Apr 21, 2026
Zierlein laid out their final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. They also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
Said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast)Hear the original
What Lance Zierlein said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromSo what I ultimately did was I think I ended up going Caleb Downs there at at pick number five. I have Styles going four, I had Jeremy I Love three.
- Where it was said
- Move the Sticks (podcast)
- The episode
- NFL Draft Week: Giants Positioned for Franchise-Changing Draft, Predicting the Cowboys' Strategy and DJ's Final Top 50 Prospects
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidApr 20
- GradedAug 14–Oct 1
- 1Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)“the one thing that we're talking about being a lock them if you lock it in Ty Simpson, is he a locked to do in the first round. I'm gonna say lock... I feel like it's starting to look more and more like Arizona.”
- 2Caleb Downs to be picked at number 5“So what I ultimately did was I think I ended up going Caleb Downs there at at pick number five.”
- 3Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 3“I have Styles going four, I had Jeremy I Love three.”
- 4Sonny Styles to be picked at number 4“Now I've got Sonny Styles going to Robert Salah at four.”
- 5Sonny Styles to be 1st linebacker off the board“So if he's on the board, we take him because he's the only first round linebacker.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)1 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 13 | 100 | 50 | +50 | |
| Caleb Downs to be picked at number 52 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 11 | 77.11 | 50 | +50 | |
| Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 33 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 3 | 100 | 50 | +50 | |
| Sonny Styles to be picked at number 44 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 7 | 87.81 | 50 | +50 | |
| Sonny Styles to be 1st linebacker off the board5 | Position Order Calls | — | 100 | 20.82 | +79.18 | |
| 5 calls · 4 hits · 1 close call · all settled | 93 | 44.2 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive5 checkable claims — 4 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 93 out of 100, against 44.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
1Mock Draft PicksTy SimpsonArizona Cardinals
Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
What happenedWent 13100Hit · naive 50100this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=50better than naive×1difficulty=+50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
2Mock Draft PicksCaleb DownsNew York Giants
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 5
What happenedWent 11mocked at 577.11Close · naive 50100this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=50better than naive×1difficulty=+50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Caleb Downs
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 77.11
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 77.11
- predicted pick:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
3Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveArizona Cardinals
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 3
What happenedWent 3mocked at 3100Hit · naive 50100this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=50better than naive×1difficulty=+50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
Sonny Styles to be picked at number 4
What happenedWent 7mocked at 487.81Hit · naive 50100this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=50better than naive×1difficulty=+50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Sonny Styles
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
5Position Order CallsSonny Styles
Sonny Styles to be 1st linebacker off the board
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 20.82100this call−20.82a naive guess=79.18better than naive×1difficulty=+79.18skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 26 at random averages 20.82
- skill:
- 79.18
- player:
- Sonny Styles
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 20.82
- position:
- linebacker
- class size:
- 26
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 3
- predicted order:
- 1–32
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
93naive 44.2
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
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More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
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Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.