Lance Zierlein· Apr 21, 2026

Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.

“So what I ultimately did was I think I ended up going Caleb Downs there at at pick number five. I have Styles going four, I had Jeremy I Love three.”

said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast) · read the original →

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

5 checkable claims — 4 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 93 out of 100, against 44.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where this call stands in the room

Caleb Downs · 2026 season · overall pick

Lance Zierlein — 5 overall pickthe room — 5 calls from 5 punditsmedian 10 overall pickwhat happened — 11 overall pick

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Who this take is about

5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Mock Draft Picks Jeremiyah Love Arizona CardinalsApr 21, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 3
“I have Styles going four, I had Jeremy I Love three.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
50
player:
Jeremiyah Love
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
3
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
3
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
100
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Sonny StylesApr 21, 2026
Sonny Styles to be picked at number 4
“Now I've got Sonny Styles going to Robert Salah at four.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
50
player:
Sonny Styles
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
87.81
baseline:
50
actual pick:
7
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
87.81
predicted pick:
4
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
100
Think this is wrong?
Position Order Calls Sonny StylesApr 21, 2026
Sonny Styles to be 1st linebacker off the board
“So if he's on the board, we take him because he's the only first round linebacker.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 20.82+79.18 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 26 at random averages 20.82
skill:
79.18
player:
Sonny Styles
season:
2026
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
20.82
position:
linebacker
class size:
26
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
3
predicted order:
1–32
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Ty Simpson Arizona CardinalsApr 21, 2026
Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“the one thing that we're talking about being a lock them if you lock it in Ty Simpson, is he a locked to do in the first round. I'm gonna say lock... I feel like it's starting to look more and more like Arizona.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Ty Simpson
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
13
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
first round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Caleb Downs New York GiantsApr 21, 2026
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 5
“So what I ultimately did was I think I ended up going Caleb Downs there at at pick number five.”
Close · 77Scored 77.11a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Caleb Downs
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
77.11
baseline:
50
actual pick:
11
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
77.11
predicted pick:
5
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?

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