Rich Eisen#38 of 87 NFL pundits · Dec 2, 2024
Eisen says Russell Wilson will lead the Steelers to the AFC North title and that Mike Tomlin deserves Coach of the Year if Pittsburgh keeps this up; they also argue Atlanta will stick with Kirk Cousins rather than turning to rookie Michael Penix, and agrees the Packers reaching the divisional round is no overreaction.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original
2 of 4calls landed2 hits · 2 misses · all settled
50Average accuracyout of 100, across 4 calls
72.9A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
4 of 4Settlednone still waiting
What Rich Eisen said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromthis is a guy who's gonna lead the Steelers to the AFC North title
- Where it was said
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)
- The episode
- NFL Week 13: All stadiums should be domes!
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidDec 2, 2024
- GradedAug 13–17, 2026
- 1Pittsburgh Steelers to win the division“this is a guy who's gonna lead the Steelers to the AFC North title, and who knows how deep”
- 2Tomlin to win Coach of the Year“If the Steelers do what they're doing... you gotta you gotta get be coach of the year.”
- 3Green Bay Packers to make the playoffs“The Packers are gonna make it to the divisional round again. I don't think that's an, an overreaction at all.”
- 4Kirk Cousins to be 1st on the depth chart“But if you're Raheem Morris, you're not gonna uncork that right now. You're just not gonna do it. ... You breathe in, you exhale, and you keep using Kirk Cousins.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers to win the division1 | Division Winners | — | 0 | 100 | −133 | |
| Tomlin to win Coach of the Year2 | Coach Award Picks | Kevin O'Connell won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Green Bay Packers to make the playoffs3 | Playoff Picks | Made the playoffs | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Kirk Cousins to be 1st on the depth chart4 | Depth Chart Calls | No. 1 | 100 | 91.67 | +11.08 | |
| 4 calls · 2 hits · 2 misses · all settled | 50 | 72.9 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive4 checkable claims — 1 coach award pick, 1 depth chart call, 1 division winner and 1 playoff pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 72.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Division WinnersPittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers to win the division
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×1.33difficulty=−133skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −133
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- PIT
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- won the division:
- no
Tomlin to win Coach of the Year
What happenedKevin O'Connell woncalled Mike Tomlin0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.33difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- coach_of_the_year
- coach:
- Mike Tomlin
- naive:
- the naive pick was Kevin Stefanski, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- who won:
- Kevin O'Connell
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 6
3Playoff PicksGreen Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers to make the playoffs
What happenedMade the playoffs100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.33difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- GB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 6
4Depth Chart CallsKirk CousinsAtlanta Falcons
Kirk Cousins to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards100Hit · naive 91.67100this call−91.67a naive guess=8.33better than naive×1.33difficulty=+11.08skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- ATL
- skill:
- 11.08
- player:
- Kirk Cousins
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
50naive 72.9
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Ahead of the trade deadline, they float three Raiders moves: shipping Kirk Cousins to Minnesota if the Vikings offer a second-round pick, selling Maxx Crosby to Dallas for a first-rounder plus, and acquiring Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. for a second- or third-round pick.Tom Pelissero · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Pelissero laid out the Giants' quarterback situation with Jameis Winston starting, said Jayden Daniels likely won't be back when Washington plays the Giants and that Caleb Williams is unlikely to play Monday night, and floated Joey Porter Jr. landing in Dallas and Kirk Cousins being traded in-season.Alex Curry · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Curry expects Fernando Mendoza to be taken No. 1 overall by the Raiders and to be thrown into the starting lineup immediately, and they say Kirk Cousins will be released by Atlanta within weeks.Alex Curry · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Curry expects Fernando Mendoza to be the No. 1 overall pick and land with the Raiders, and they say Kirk Cousins will be released by Atlanta.
More coach award picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Matt Hasselbeck · Coach Award Picks · Miss 0
Hasselbeck agreed on the Bills and Ravens as AFC division winners, picked the Colts (with Daniel Jones) to win the AFC South, the Broncos to win the AFC West, the Seahawks to win the NFC West, and tabbed Brian Flores for a Coach of the Year-type honor. They also said the Patriots would make a big jump and potentially reach the playoffs, and named Minnesota, Las Vegas, New England and Chicago as offseason winners.Richard Sherman · Coach Award Picks · Hit 100
Sherman picked the Eagles, Vikings, Ravens and Bills in their wild-card games, named Lamar Jackson MVP, Patrick Surtain DPOY, Kevin O'Connell Coach of the Year, put Jared Verse in the top three of Defensive Rookie of the Year voting, and gave a Week 18 power ranking with Kansas City first.Pat Gustavson · Coach Award Picks · Miss 0
Gustafson picked the Bears, Eagles, Rams, Patriots, Jaguars and Texans in the wild card round, the Rams and Bears in the NFC, the Broncos and Patriots in the AFC, and the Patriots to beat the Bears in the Super Bowl. Their awards slate included Stafford for MVP, Puka for OPOY and Liam Cohen for Coach of the Year.Brandon Carney · Coach Award Picks · Hit 100
Carney made a full playoff bracket, picking the Bears, Niners, Rams, Patriots, Jaguars and Texans in the wild card round, then Seahawks and Rams in the NFC divisional, Broncos and Patriots in the AFC, with the Rams beating the Patriots in the Super Bowl. They also gave award picks including Stafford for MVP and Vrabel for Coach of the Year.