Nathan GonzalesSep 19, 2024

Running through Inside Elections' latest ratings changes, they moved the Montana Senate race to Tilt Republican for Tim Sheehy and announced a batch of House ratings favoring one side in Maine's 2nd, Texas' 15th, Arizona's 2nd, Iowa's 1st, New Hampshire's 1st and 2nd, Pennsylvania's 10th and Wisconsin's 3rd. They also kept Ryan Zinke rated with the advantage in Montana's 1st and Connecticut's 5th at Lean Democratic.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Inside Elections PodcastHear the original

11 of 11calls landed11 hits · all settled

100Average accuracyout of 100, across 11 calls

90.9A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

11Races calledevery call on each below

0Waitingnot graded yet

What Nathan Gonzales said

the big change we made in the senate was the Montana senate race, moving it from toss-up to tilting Republican, in favor of Republican Tim Sheehy

Nathan Gonzales, the lead quote

Where it was said: The Inside Elections Podcast
The episode: Episode 31: New Montana Poll, Rating Changes, Connecticut 5 w/ Daniela Altimari of Roll Call
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidSep 19, 2024
Election DayNov 5, 2024
GradedOct 9, 2026

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Close	Misses	Waiting	Calls
Race Winners	11	0	0	0
All	11	0	0	0

How each call scored

11 checkable claims — 11 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 11 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 90.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Race Winners11 hitsShow ▸

Republican to win the 2024 U.S. House election in Pennsylvania's district 10
“Pennsylvania's 10th District, where Democrats are are targeting significantly from lean Republican to tilt Republican”
Scott Perry woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-pa-10
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
tilt Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Scott Perry
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Pennsylvania's district 10
decided in the:
general
they said:
Scott Perry
days before the vote when called:
46
difficulty:
1.06
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Tim Sheehy (Republican) to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
“the big change we made in the senate was the Montana senate race, moving it from toss-up to tilting Republican, in favor of Republican Tim Sheehy”
Tim Sheehy woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.06 difficulty = +106 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-mt
election year:
2024
skill:
106
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
tilting Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Tim Sheehy
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tim Sheehy
days before the vote when called:
46
difficulty:
1.06
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Johanna Hayes (Democratic) to win the 2024 U.S. House election in Connecticut's district 5
“We have the race rated as lean Democratic.”
Jahana Hayes woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-ct-05
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
lean Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Jahana Hayes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Connecticut's district 5
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jahana Hayes
days before the vote when called:
46
difficulty:
1.06
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Democratic to win the 2024 U.S. House election in New Hampshire's district 1
“New Hampshire's 1st District, lean Democratic to likely Democratic”
Chris Pappas woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-nh-01
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
likely Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Chris Pappas
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in New Hampshire's district 1
decided in the:
general
they said:
Chris Pappas
days before the vote when called:
46
difficulty:
1.06
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Ryan Zinke (Republican) to win the 2024 U.S. House election in Montana's district 1
“We still have Zinke, rated with the advantage in the race, but it's it shows that it's close.”
Ryan K. Zinke woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-mt-01
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
rated with the advantage
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Ryan K. Zinke
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Montana's district 1
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ryan K. Zinke
days before the vote when called:
46
difficulty:
1.06
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Jared Golden (Democrat) to win the 2024 U.S. House election in Maine's district 2
“Maine's second district, which is Democrat Jared Golden, we moved it from lean Democratic to tilt Democratic.”
Jared Forrest Golden woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-me-02
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
tilt Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Jared Forrest Golden
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Maine's district 2
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jared Forrest Golden
days before the vote when called:
46
difficulty:
1.06
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Republican to win the 2024 U.S. House election in Iowa's district 1
“Iowa's 1st District from lean Republican to tilt Republican”
Mariannette Miller-Meeks woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-ia-01
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
tilt Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Iowa's district 1
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
days before the vote when called:
46
difficulty:
1.06
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Republican to win the 2024 U.S. House election in Texas's district 15
“In Texas 15th District, we moved from lean Republican to likely Republican.”
Monica De La Cruz woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-tx-15
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
likely Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Monica De La Cruz
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Texas's district 15
decided in the:
general
they said:
Monica De La Cruz
days before the vote when called:
46
difficulty:
1.06
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Democratic to win the 2024 U.S. House election in New Hampshire's district 2
“New Hampshire's 2nd District, likely Democratic to solid Democratic”
Maggie Goodlander woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-nh-02
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
solid Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Maggie Goodlander
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in New Hampshire's district 2
decided in the:
general
they said:
Maggie Goodlander
days before the vote when called:
46
difficulty:
1.06
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Republican to win the 2024 U.S. House election in Arizona's district 2
“Arizona's 2nd District from solid Republican to likely Republican”
Eli Crane woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-az-02
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
likely Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Eli Crane
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Arizona's district 2
decided in the:
general
they said:
Eli Crane
days before the vote when called:
46
difficulty:
1.06
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Derek Van Orden (Republican) to win the 2024 U.S. House election in Wisconsin's district 3
“Wisconsin's 3rd, which is Republican congressman Derek Van Orden, likely Republican to lean Republican”
Derrick Van Orden woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.06 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-wi-03
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
lean Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Derrick Van Orden
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Wisconsin's district 3
decided in the:
general
they said:
Derrick Van Orden
days before the vote when called:
46
difficulty:
1.06
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

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