Chris Brockman· Jun 23, 2025
Brockman argued the Chiefs dynasty is finished, predicted the Giants and Jets would win about five games apiece while Dallas could reach 12 wins, tabbed Jacksonville as an AFC South winner, said Washington falls back to 9-8, picked Mike Vrabel for Coach of the Year, called the 49ers a slept-on championship-weekend team, projected big numbers for Bo Nix and a Denver division title, forecast a 2,000-yard receiver, hyped the Penix-London duo, and said Baltimore is the AFC North's only playoff team.
“Last year's Super Bowl blowout loss marked the end of the Chiefs dynasty.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
16 checkable claims — 5 season win totals, 3 division winners, 2 player season numbers, 2 playoff picks, 1 award pick, 1 coach award pick, 1 depth chart call and 1 surprise team call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
15 of 16 have settled so far, averaging 57.4 out of 100, against 25.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
16 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersBaltimore RavensJun 23, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to win the division
“It's only Baltimore in the AFC North.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
- Division WinnersDenver BroncosJun 23, 2025
Denver Broncos to win the division
“Sean Payton year two. Got some weapons in the draft. Broncos win the West.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- yes
- Division WinnersJacksonville JaguarsJun 23, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to win the division
“I think I think they might make Jaguars... I think they might win the division.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- yes
- Season Win TotalsNew York JetsJun 23, 2025
New York Jets to finish with 5 wins
“But you're saying that the Giants and the Jets are both gonna have five wins apiece? Yeah. Five, six at most.”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 25+70 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NYJ
- naive:
- 6.75
- skill:
- 70
- what happened:
- 3
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 25
- predicted:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksSan Francisco 49ersJun 23, 2025
San Francisco 49ers to make the playoffs
“San Francisco will be playing on championship weekend this year. Wow. Forty niners final four.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- SF
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsNew York GiantsJun 23, 2025
New York Giants to finish with 5 wins
“But you're saying that the Giants and the Jets are both gonna have five wins apiece? Yeah. Five, six at most.”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 65+30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NYG
- naive:
- 5.75
- skill:
- 30
- what happened:
- 4
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 65
- predicted:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksBaltimore RavensJun 23, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs
“One playoff team That's wild. On the AFC North Who is it? It's the Baltimore Ravens.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BAL
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsWashington CommandersJun 23, 2025
Washington Commanders to finish with 9 wins
“I think they're gonna come back down to earth a little bit, maybe go nine and eight, ultimately miss the playoffs.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 0+40 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- WAS
- naive:
- 10.25
- skill:
- 40
- what happened:
- 5
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Player Season NumbersBo NixDenver BroncosJun 23, 2025
Bo Nix to record 4,500 passing yards
“Bo Nicks 4,500 yards, 35 touchdowns.”
Close · 75Scored 74.71a naive guess scored 38.05+73.32 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 2713.37
- skill:
- 73.32
- what happened:
- 3931
- player:
- Bo Nix
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 74.71
- baseline:
- 38.05
- predicted:
- 4500
- statistic:
- passing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 3775
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 1651.74
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Award PicksBo NixDenver BroncosJun 23, 2025
Bo Nix to win MVP finalist
“Bo Nicks is gonna be an MVP finalist this year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Bo Nix
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsRome OdunzeChicago BearsJun 23, 2025
Rome Odunze to be 1st on the depth chart
“Romadunze really has a chance to be the number one wide receiver in Chicago.”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 100-33.33 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- CHI
- skill:
- -33.33
- player:
- Rome Odunze
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 3
- actual slot:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Player Season NumbersBo NixDenver BroncosJun 23, 2025
Bo Nix to record 35 passing tds
“Bo Nicks 4,500 yards, 35 touchdowns.”
Close · 43Scored 42.86a naive guess scored 70.58-55.44 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 21.32
- skill:
- -55.44
- what happened:
- 25
- player:
- Bo Nix
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 42.86
- baseline:
- 70.58
- predicted:
- 35
- statistic:
- passing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 29
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 13.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Season Win TotalsSan Francisco 49ersJun 23, 2025
San Francisco 49ers to finish with 12 wins
“So they they went six and eleven last year. They could put twelve and five pretty easily.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 5+190 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- SF
- naive:
- 7.25
- skill:
- 190
- what happened:
- 12
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 5
- predicted:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Coach Award PicksJun 23, 2025
Mike Vrabel to win Coach of the Year
“Mike Vrabel's gonna win coach of the year. The Pats are back, people.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- coach_of_the_year
- coach:
- Mike Vrabel
- naive:
- the naive pick was Kevin O'Connell, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Mike Vrabel
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsDallas CowboysJun 23, 2025
Dallas Cowboys to finish with 12 wins
“Dallas could be a twelve and five team.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 85-170 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DAL
- naive:
- 7.75
- skill:
- -170
- what happened:
- 7
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 85
- predicted:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Surprise Team CallsSan Francisco 49ersJun 23, 2025
San Francisco 49ers to beat expectations
“heading into 2025, the forty niners are being slept on, underrated, and San Francisco will be playing on championship weekend this year”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Baltimore RavensHit · 98Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Chicago BearsMiss · 0Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
More season win totals
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · Green Bay PackersClose · 40Sherman previewed every division: he picked Seattle to win the NFC West on a tiebreaker over San Francisco (both 11-11 wins), the Lions over the Packers in the North, the Eagles to run away with the East, Tampa Bay in the South, and Kansas City, Buffalo and the Ravens' division rivals in the AFC. He picked an Eagles–Chiefs Super Bowl with Philadelphia repeating, Joe Burrow for MVP, and gave a top-five power ranking.
- Nick WrightSeason Win Totals · New England PatriotsMiss · 20Nick Wright walked through the Browns' quarterback situation and then gave leans and bets on every AFC team's win total, offering concrete win-count expectations for several clubs plus a call on Brock Bowers.
- Colin CowherdSeason Win Totals · New England PatriotsMiss · 0Cowherd takes the Titans over their five-and-a-half win total on the strength of Cam Ward and Brian Callahan, calls New England an eight-to-nine win team, picks Green Bay to win the NFC North, expects the Giants to lose all four games to Washington and Philadelphia, and sketches a quarterback ranking with C.J. Stroud around 10th and Baker Mayfield 11th.
- John MiddlekauffSeason Win Totals · New England PatriotsMiss · 0Middlekauff says Denver's floor is ten wins, predicts Miami implodes to four or five wins and a top-three-or-four draft slot with Tyreek Hill traded, thinks the 49ers beat expectations with nine or ten wins, sees the Patriots at eight or nine wins, calls the Chargers over 9.5 a lock, expects Jared Goff to make five or six Pro Bowls, and says the Packers are flying under the radar.
- Nick WrightSeason Win Totals · Los Angeles ChargersHit · 80Nick Wright gave his early AFC win-total leans: overs on the Jets, Ravens, Jaguars, Chiefs and Raiders, plus projected win ranges for the Dolphins, Texans, Chargers and Broncos, and predicted the Raiders take Ashton Jeanty at No. 6.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · Detroit LionsHit · 100Sherman picks the Chiefs to beat the Bills in the AFC Championship Game despite Buffalo's turnover dominance, and picks the Commanders to upset the Eagles in Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game. He also expects Saquon Barkley to win Offensive Player of the Year, though he hedges that voters may give it to Lamar or Josh Allen.