Amber Duke· Oct 25, 2024
Discussing the close Texas Senate race between Ted Cruz and Colin Allred, she said her guess is that Cruz holds the seat by a narrow margin of two or three points.
“If I had to guess, I would say Cruz might win by two or three points just based on what what I've seen from the polling so far.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Rising (The Hill) · read the original →
One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 45 out of 100, against 15 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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1 checkable claim in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race MarginsOct 25, 2024
“I'm I'm interested in Texas too because I I do see that the senate race is very close. If I had to guess, I would say Cruz might win by two or three points just based on what what I've seen from the polling so far.”
Close · 45Scored 45a naive guess scored 15+30.3 skillHow this was scored
- race:
- 2024-senate-tx
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 30.3
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 8.5
- in their words:
- two or three points
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Ted Cruz
- zero credit this far off:
- 10
- what they counted:
- margin_points
- whose number:
- Ted Cruz
- accuracy:
- 45
- baseline:
- 15
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in Texas
- decided in the:
- general
- days before the vote when called:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- they won:
- yes
- the naive guess:
- the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the certified margin:
- 8.5
- their party:
- Republican
- their range:
- 2,3
- the naive guess said:
- 0
More race margins
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