Jeremiah PoffOct 17, 2024
Poff says Democrats face increasingly long odds of holding Tester's Montana seat, and that both Montana and Ohio are all but certain to be won easily by Trump in the presidential race.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Tangle (podcast)Hear the original
3 of 3calls landed3 hits · all settled
100Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
66.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
3Races calledevery call on each below
0Waitingnot graded yet
What Jeremiah Poff said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromDemocrats are facing increasingly long odds of holding the Montana senate seat currently held by senator Jon Tester
- Where it was said
- Tangle (podcast)
- The episode
- SPECIAL EDITION: The Senate races.
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 17, 2024
- Election DayNov 5, 2024
- GradedOct 9, 2026
- 1Republicans to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana“Democrats are facing increasingly long odds of holding the Montana senate seat currently held by senator Jon Tester”
- 2Donald Trump to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Montana“Both men represent states that are all but assured of being won easily by former president Donald Trump in the concurrent presidential race”
- 3Donald Trump to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Ohio“Both men represent states that are all but assured of being won easily by former president Donald Trump in the concurrent presidential race”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana1 | Race Winners | Tim Sheehy won | 100 | 0 | +102 | |
| Donald Trump to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Montana2 | Race Winners | Donald Trump won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Donald Trump to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Ohio3 | Race Winners | Donald Trump won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| 3 calls · 3 hits · all settled | 100 | 66.7 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive3 checkable claims — 3 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 3 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Republicans to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
What happenedTim Sheehy woncertified result100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.02difficulty=+102skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-mt
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 102
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- Democrats are facing increasingly long odds of holding the Montana senate seat
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Tim Sheehy
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Tim Sheehy
- days before the vote when called:
- 18
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
Donald Trump to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Montana
What happenedDonald Trump woncertified result100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.02difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-mt
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Montana
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 18
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
Donald Trump to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Ohio
What happenedDonald Trump woncertified result100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.02difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-oh
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Ohio
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 18
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 66.7
The races in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.