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John KingNov 6, 2022

Presenting CNN's race ratings, King said Republicans were already favored in 216 House seats, rated Elaine Luria's Virginia district as tilting Republican, and still had Arizona's Senate race tilting Democratic.

Said on air, transcribed by us · State of the Union (CNN)Hear the original

2 of 3calls landed2 hits · 1 close call · all settled
90Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
51.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2Races calledevery call on each below
0Waitingnot graded yet

What John King said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
And in our rankings right now, we already have Republicans favored in 216 seats.
John King, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
State of the Union (CNN)
The episode
Exclusive interviews with: Chairwoman of the Republican National Committee Ronna McDaniel, and Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar.
The original
Hear the original
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  1. SaidNov 6, 2022
  2. Election DayNov 8, 2022
  3. GradedOct 10, 2026
  1. 1Democratic to win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona“We still tilt Arizona Democratic. Republicans think that one is within their reach.”
  2. 2Seat Counts“And in our rankings right now, we already have Republicans favored in 216 seats.”
  3. 3Republican to win the 2022 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 2“Elaine Loria's district is tilting Republican.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Democratic to win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona1Race WinnersMark Kelly won1001000
“And in our rankings right now, we already have Republicans…”2Seat Counts2227055+15
Republican to win the 2022 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 23Race WinnersJen Kiggans won1000+100
3 calls · 2 hits · 1 close call · all settled9051.7

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

3 checkable claims — 2 race winners and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 3 have settled, averaging 90 out of 100, against 51.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Race Winners

    Democratic to win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona

    What happenedMark Kelly woncertified result
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2022-senate-az
    election year:
    2022
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    in their words:
    We still tilt Arizona Democratic
    result from:
    fec-2022
    who won:
    Mark Kelly
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Mark Kelly
    days before the vote when called:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    the result is:
    certified
    the party they named:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Seat Counts

    “And in our rankings right now, we already have Republicans favored in 216 seats.”

    What happened222called 216
    70Close · naive 55
    70this call55a naive guess15better than naive1difficulty+15skill
    How this was scored
    election year:
    2022
    party:
    Republican
    seats after:
    222
    skill:
    15
    topic:
    elections
    what happened:
    222
    result from:
    house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
    chamber:
    2022-house
    what they counted:
    seats held
    accuracy:
    70
    baseline:
    55
    they said:
    216
    days before the vote when called:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    seats before:
    213
    the naive guess:
    no change from the previous election
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    the naive guess said:
    213
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Race Winners

    Republican to win the 2022 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 2

    What happenedJen Kiggans woncertified result
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2022-house-va-02
    election year:
    2022
    skill:
    100
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    in their words:
    tilting Republican
    result from:
    fec-2022
    who won:
    Jen Kiggans
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    race name:
    2022 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 2
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Jen Kiggans
    days before the vote when called:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    the winner's party:
    Republican
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    the result is:
    certified
    the party they named:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?
  4. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once

    90naive 51.7

The races in this take

every call on each
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More race winners

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