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Charles DavisFeb 26, 2026

Davis calls Mendoza a near no-brainer at No. 1 and the only first-round quarterback, projects Arbel Reese as the likely No. 2 overall pick with Sonny Styles as a top-10 selection, and says Ty Simpson will be the second quarterback drafted.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)Hear the original

4 of 4calls landed4 hits · all settled
97Average accuracyout of 100, across 4 calls
47.4A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
4 of 4Settlednone still waiting
0Waitingnot graded yet

What Charles Davis said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
As far as I'm concerned, there's one quarterback in the first round, and it's him.
Charles Davis, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)
The episode
Hour 1: Live from the NFL Combine with ESPN’s Matt Miller, CBS Sports’ Charles Davis & Rich’s Top 5
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidFeb 26
  2. GradedAug 13–Oct 1
  1. 1Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1“I hate using the term no brainer... He's the quarterback that has proven himself to be that guy... As far as I'm concerned, there's one quarterback in the first round, and it's him.”
  2. 2Sonny Styles to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)“For me, it's Reese, but then Styles ... is also in that discussion. ... Be a top 10 kid.”
  3. 3Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2“Who's two on your board? ... Probably Arbel Reese, the kid out of Ohio State.”
  4. 4Ty Simpson to be 2nd quarterback off the board“I think he's gonna be the number two quarterback taken.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 11Mock Draft PicksWent 110050+50
Sonny Styles to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)2Mock Draft PicksWent 710050+50
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 23Mock Draft PicksWent 587.8150+50
Ty Simpson to be 2nd quarterback off the board4Position Order Calls—10039.7+60.3
4 calls · 4 hits · all settled9747.4

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

4 checkable claims — 3 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 4 have settled, averaging 97 out of 100, against 47.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
1They said
1What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. 1Mock Draft PicksFernando MendozaLas Vegas Raiders

    Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1

    What happenedWent 1mocked at 1
    100Hit · naive 50
    100this mock’s order50a shuffled mock50better than naive1difficulty+50skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    50
    player:
    Fernando Mendoza
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    100
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Mock Draft PicksSonny Styles

    Sonny Styles to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)

    What happenedWent 7
    100Hit · naive 50
    100this mock’s order50a shuffled mock50better than naive1difficulty+50skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    50
    player:
    Sonny Styles
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    7
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    top 10 (picks 1–10)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    100
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Mock Draft PicksArvell Reese

    Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2

    What happenedWent 5mocked at 2
    87.81Hit · naive 50
    100this mock’s order50a shuffled mock50better than naive1difficulty+50skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    50
    player:
    Arvell Reese
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    87.81
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    5
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    87.81
    predicted pick:
    2
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    100
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Position Order CallsTy Simpson

    Ty Simpson to be 2nd quarterback off the board

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 39.7
    100this call39.7a naive guess60.3better than naive1difficulty+60.3skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    naming one of the 10 at random averages 39.7
    skill:
    60.3
    player:
    Ty Simpson
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    credit halves every two places
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    39.7
    position:
    quarterback
    class size:
    10
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual order:
    2
    predicted order:
    2
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
  5. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once

    97naive 47.4

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