Patrick ClaybonDec 16, 2025
Claybon projects Bijan Robinson as the week's top running back and A.J. Brown as a candidate for top wide receiver, and gives weekly fantasy point projections of about 26 for Drake Maye, 19 for Trevor Lawrence and just over 10 for Brock Bowers.
Said on air or in an interview · The Rich Eisen Podcast (podcast)Hear the original
What Patrick Claybon said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI have a projection of twenty six point full fantasy points because this Ravens defense has struggled against the deep pass.
- Where it was said
- The Rich Eisen Podcast (podcast)
- The episode
- NFL Fantasy Live: Steelers-Dolphins Recap + Fantasy Playoff Predictions
- The original
- Hear the original
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The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 12, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidDec 16, 2025
- GradedAug 13, 2026
- 1Brock Bowers to record 10 fantasy points“You get just north to ten points.”
- 2Trevor Lawrence to record 19 fantasy points“I am forecasting a relatively nice, surprisingly nice nineteen points for Trevor Lawrence”
- 3A.J. Brown to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points“So I think AJ has a chance to be the wide receiver one.”
- 4Bijan Robinson to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points“You're obviously gonna start Jon Robinson, but I think he will be the RB one.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers to record 10 fantasy points1 | Player Season Numbers | 112.2 | 0 | 66.05 | −77.28 | |
| Trevor Lawrence to record 19 fantasy points2 | Player Season Numbers | 338.18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| A.J. Brown to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points3 | Positional Finishes | Finished #15 | 0 | 83.33 | −97.5 | |
| Bijan Robinson to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points4 | Positional Finishes | Finished #3 | 83.33 | 91.67 | −9.75 | |
| 4 calls · 1 hit · 3 misses · all settled | 20.8 | 60.3 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive4 checkable claims — 2 player season numbers and 2 positional finishes — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 20.8 out of 100, against 60.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
fantasy pointsTheir call against what actually happened.
1Player Season NumbersBrock BowersLas Vegas Raiders
Brock Bowers to record 10 fantasy points
What happened112.2called 100Miss · naive 66.050this call−66.05a naive guess=−66.05worse than naive×1.17difficulty=−77.28skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 93.15
- skill:
- −77.28
- what happened:
- 112.2
- player:
- Brock Bowers
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 66.05
- they said:
- 10
- statistic:
- fantasy_points
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- last season:
- 150.7
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- position average:
- 35.61
- zero at percent out:
- 50
2Player Season NumbersTrevor LawrenceJacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence to record 19 fantasy points
What happened338.18called 190Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.17difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 134.15
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 338.18
- player:
- Trevor Lawrence
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- 19
- statistic:
- fantasy_points
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- last season:
- 145.2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- position average:
- 123.09
- zero at percent out:
- 50
3Positional FinishesA.J. BrownPhiladelphia Eagles
A.J. Brown to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #15called #1 · by fantasy points0Miss · naive 83.330this call−83.33a naive guess=−83.33worse than naive×1.17difficulty=−97.5skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −97.5
- player:
- A.J. Brown
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 17
- actual finish:
- 15
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- predicted finish:
- 1
4Positional FinishesBijan Robinson
Bijan Robinson to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #3called #1 · by fantasy points83.33Hit · naive 91.6783.33this call−91.67a naive guess=−8.34worse than naive×1.17difficulty=−9.75skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −9.75
- player:
- Bijan Robinson
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 4
- actual finish:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- predicted finish:
- 1
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
20.8naive 60.3
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Garrett Podell · Game Outcome Picks · Philadelphia Eagles · Miss 0
Podell predicts the Eagles, behind new starting quarterback Joe Milton III, snap their six-game losing streak by upsetting the first-place Giants in Week 9.AJ Hawk · Game Outcome Picks · Jacksonville Jaguars · Hit 100
Hawk picked the Jaguars to beat the Ravens on the road, predicting roughly a 17-point margin.Connor "Boston Connor" Campbell · Game Outcome Picks · Jacksonville Jaguars · Hit 100
Connor believed Baltimore would keep it close but still said Jacksonville wins the game outright.Nick Wright · Game Outcome Picks · Jacksonville Jaguars · Hit 100
Wright expects the 49ers to release Brandon Aiyuk once they report, predicts Jacksonville blows out Baltimore on Thursday night, sees the Jaguars finishing around 13-4 or 14-3, and thinks Seattle's defense carries them past Arizona even with Drew Lock starting.Connor Rogers · Game Outcome Picks · Jacksonville Jaguars · Hit 100
Rogers agreed the Bears have the NFL's best offense, picked Minnesota as the league's best total defense, and picked Jacksonville to beat Baltimore on Thursday night.
More positional finishes
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Nick Wright · Positional Finishes · Puka Nacua · Close 75
Nick Wright picked the Ravens to beat Houston this weekend even with Lamar Jackson possibly out (leaning on Derrick Henry and Cooper Rush), the Chiefs to win in Jacksonville, and the Rams to beat the 49ers on Thursday night. They also laid out an AFC playoff field of Bills, Steelers, Chiefs, Chargers and Colts, projected the Chiefs' receiver pecking order once Rashee Rice returns, and called Justin Jefferson the best receiver in football with Puka Nacua a top-five receiver.Rich Hribar · Positional Finishes · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Hribar published their 2023 fantasy football quarterback tiers, ordering 41 quarterbacks into eight tiers that reflect how they prioritize drafting the position, with Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes in the top tier as the trio most likely to finish as the overall QB1.Chris Brockman · Positional Finishes · Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Hit 100
Brockman argued Jaxon Smith-Njigba is already the best receiver in the NFL and deserves to be the highest paid, called their shot that three quarterbacks (Mendoza, Ty Simpson, Carson Beck) go in the first round with Mendoza first overall, and suggested New England is headed for a 7-10 season.Ryan Tracy · Positional Finishes · Bryan Cook · Miss 0
Tracy argues the Chiefs should address edge rusher and defensive tackle via the draft and use free agency on running back and wide receiver; they name Brian Robinson as their target, expects Kenneth Walker III to re-sign with Seattle, thinks Nick Bolton-style veterans like Jerry Tillery, Derek Nnadi and Mike Pennel shouldn't return, believes Bryan Cook is a top-10 safety the Chiefs can't afford, and predicts a quarterback (Trinidad Chambliss) will rocket up boards so more than one QB goes in the top 10.Pat Gustavson · Positional Finishes · Josh Allen · Miss 17
Gustafson picks the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks and Bears in the divisional round with a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl, predicts Mike Tomlin and Matt LaFleur stay, Aaron Rodgers returns to Pittsburgh, and lays out their own coaching landing spots.Rich Eisen · Positional Finishes · George Pickens · Hit 100
Eisen called the Rams-winning-it-all take an overreaction but expects Los Angeles to win the NFC West, said they don't see how Myles Garrett fails to win Defensive Player of the Year, and called George Pickens perhaps the third-best receiver in the NFL this season.