Patrick Claybon· Dec 16, 2025
Claybon projects Bijan Robinson as the week's top running back and A.J. Brown as a candidate for top wide receiver, and gives weekly fantasy point projections of about 26 for Drake Maye, 19 for Trevor Lawrence and just over 10 for Brock Bowers.
“I have a projection of twenty six point full fantasy points because this Ravens defense has struggled against the deep pass.”
said on air or in an interview · The Rich Eisen Podcast (podcast) · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 3 player season numbers and 2 positional finishes — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 16.7 out of 100, against 48.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
fantasy points10They said
112.2What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Brock Bowers to record 10 fantasy points
“You get just north to ten points.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 66.05-77.28 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 93.15
- skill:
- -77.28
- what happened:
- 112.2
- player:
- Brock Bowers
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 66.05
- predicted:
- 10
- statistic:
- fantasy_points
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- last season:
- 150.7
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- position average:
- 35.61
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Trevor Lawrence to record 19 fantasy points
“I am forecasting a relatively nice, surprisingly nice nineteen points for Trevor Lawrence”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 134.15
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 338.18
- player:
- Trevor Lawrence
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 19
- statistic:
- fantasy_points
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- last season:
- 145.2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- position average:
- 123.09
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Drake Maye to record 26 fantasy points
“I have a projection of twenty six point full fantasy points ... I think it's a bounce back game for New England and a solid fantasy performance for Drake May.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 150.12
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 350.96
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 26
- statistic:
- fantasy_points
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- last season:
- 177.14
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- position average:
- 123.09
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Positional FinishesA.J. BrownPhiladelphia EaglesDec 16, 2025
A.J. Brown to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points
“So I think AJ has a chance to be the wide receiver one.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 83.33-97.5 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -97.5
- player:
- A.J. Brown
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 17
- actual finish:
- 15
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- predicted finish:
- 1
- Positional FinishesBijan RobinsonDec 16, 2025
Bijan Robinson to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points
“You're obviously gonna start Jon Robinson, but I think he will be the RB one.”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 91.67-9.75 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -9.75
- player:
- Bijan Robinson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 4
- actual finish:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- predicted finish:
- 1
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Jacksonville JaguarsClose · 50Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Philadelphia EaglesMiss · 0Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
- Jaron SporGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0The host predicted a comfortable Buccaneers win over Cleveland, 27-10, picked Jacksonville as an upset winner at Denver, said the Giants could win seven or eight games as a sneaky team, and expected Deshaun Watson and the Browns to part ways soon.
More player season numbers
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ross JacksonPlayer Season Numbers · Tyler ShoughMiss · 4Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Chris BroussardPlayer Season Numbers · Lamar JacksonMiss · 0Broussard expects Lamar Jackson to play well but not vintage — two touchdown passes and no picks — while Derrick Henry carries the load with over 100 rushing yards. He also takes the Browns to upset the Bengals and believes Myles Garrett gets at least two sacks to break the single-season record.
- Nick WrightPlayer Season Numbers · Myles GarrettHit · 100Wright picks the Steelers to beat the Ravens outright in Pittsburgh, takes Seattle over San Francisco, and thinks the Browns lose to Cincinnati even as Myles Garrett gets the sack record.
- Nick WrightPlayer Season Numbers · Myles GarrettHit · 84Nick Wright says Myles Garrett is playing at an all-time level and might reach 25 sacks this season, and among his weekly picks he expects the Bears to beat the Steelers in an ugly low-margin home win and Seattle to win comfortably at Tennessee.
- Shannon SharpePlayer Season Numbers · T.J. WattMiss · 0On a Bengals-Steelers matchup, Sharpe took the over on several player props: Ja'Marr Chase over 74.5 receiving yards, Joe Flacco over 36.5 pass attempts, and T.J. Watt over 3.5 tackles+assists, adding that Watt will get two sacks. He also predicted Rico Dowdle would make the Pro Bowl this season.
- Rich EisenPlayer Season Numbers · Micah ParsonsClose · 56Eisen made a series of picks: Micah Parsons will out-sack any two Cowboys combined (after initially leaning the other way), the NFC North is more likely to produce a Super Bowl team than the NFC East, Eagles wins will outnumber Cowboys losses, Bo Nix/Courtland Sutton will out-touchdown Cam Ward/Calvin Ridley, and Marvin Harrison Jr./James Conner will beat Kamara/Olave in yards and TDs. He also picked the AFC West order and said Deion Sanders is more likely than Bill Belichick to have a winning record.