Susan DavisSep 5, 2024
Davis said Republicans are well positioned to flip Montana's Senate seat, that Trump will carry Montana at the presidential level, and that the overall battle for the Senate tilts toward Republicans.
Said on air, transcribed by us · The NPR Politics PodcastHear the original
3 of 3calls landed3 hits · all settled
100Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
33.3A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2Races calledevery call on each below
0Waitingnot graded yet
What Susan Davis said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromAnd if Republicans flip Montana, which they are in a very good position to do, they have the majority.
- Where it was said
- The NPR Politics Podcast
- The episode
- Republicans Are In Good Position To Win The Senate
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 5, 2024
- Election DayNov 5, 2024
- GradedOct 9, 2026
- 1Control of Congress“the battle for control of Congress is still very tight, and the bottom line that, the senate tilts towards Republicans has stayed pretty static”
- 2Trump to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Montana“Trump going to campaign in a place like Montana Right. Recently, like, that wasn't about Trump. He's gonna win that state.”
- 3Republicans to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana“And if Republicans flip Montana, which they are in a very good position to do, they have the majority.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| “the battle for control of Congress is still very tight, and the…”1 | Control of Congress | — | 100 | 0 | +108 | |
| Trump to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Montana2 | Race Winners | Donald Trump won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Republicans to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana3 | Race Winners | Tim Sheehy won | 100 | 0 | +108 | |
| 3 calls · 3 hits · all settled | 100 | 33.3 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive3 checkable claims — 2 race winners and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 3 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
“the battle for control of Congress is still very tight, and the bottom line that, the senate tilts towards Republicans has stayed pretty static”
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.08difficulty=+108skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 108
- topic:
- elections
- in their words:
- the senate tilts towards Republicans
- result from:
- senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
- chamber:
- 2024-senate
- who controls it:
- Republican
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- Republican
- days before the vote when called:
- 60
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- the naive guess:
- the party in control going in keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- who controlled it before:
- Democratic
Trump to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Montana
What happenedDonald Trump woncertified result100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.08difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-mt
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Montana
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 60
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
Republicans to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
What happenedTim Sheehy woncertified result100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.08difficulty=+108skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-mt
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 108
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- in a very good position to do
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Tim Sheehy
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Tim Sheehy
- days before the vote when called:
- 60
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 33.3
The races in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.