Daniel Horowitz· Oct 23, 2024
Horowitz endorsed the market's heavy odds that Republicans take the Senate, said the GOP wins Montana and reaches at least 51 seats even before counting Ohio or Pennsylvania, and argued the odds of Republicans keeping the House should be nearer 60 percent than the market's even money.
“I do think they get 51, and that's before you talk about Ohio Ohio with Marino or Pennsylvania with McCormick.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Steve Deace Show · read the original →
4 checkable claims — 2 chamber control, 1 race winner and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
All 4 have settled, averaging 90 out of 100, against 30 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Chamber ControlOct 23, 2024
“The current senate market is 83.3% that the GOP takes the senate. You're gonna buy on that? Buy. ... So definitely buy.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 102
- topic:
- elections
- in their words:
- 83.3% that the GOP takes the senate ... Buy
- result from:
- senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
- chamber:
- 2024-senate
- who controls it:
- Republican
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- Republican
- days before the vote when called:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the naive guess:
- the party in control going in keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- who controlled it before:
- Democratic
- Seat CountsOct 23, 2024
“I do think they get 51, and that's before you talk about Ohio Ohio with Marino or Pennsylvania with McCormick.”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 20+40.8 skillHow this was scored
- election year:
- 2024
- party:
- Republican
- seats after:
- 53
- skill:
- 40.8
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 53
- result from:
- senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
- chamber:
- 2024-senate
- what they counted:
- total_seats
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 20
- they said:
- 51
- days before the vote when called:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- seats before:
- 49
- the naive guess:
- no change from the previous election
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the naive guess said:
- 49
- Race WinnersOct 23, 2024
“what I would tell you is if nothing else, they get Montana”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-mt
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 102
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Tim Sheehy
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Tim Sheehy
- days before the vote when called:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Chamber ControlOct 23, 2024
“The house the house they have at 50.2% right now, the markets do. ... So you know, it should be it should be closer to 60% they keep it. ... I'm gonna hold on the house, but I disagree with the market.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- in their words:
- it should be closer to 60% they keep it
- result from:
- house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
- chamber:
- 2024-house
- who controls it:
- Republican
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- they said:
- Republican
- days before the vote when called:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the naive guess:
- the party in control going in keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- who controlled it before:
- Republican
More chamber control
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Erick-Woods EricksonChamber ControlHit · 100Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours.
- Carl CannonChamber ControlHit · 100Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.
- Sam WangChamber ControlMiss · 0Combining generic ballot polling with special election results, Wang gives Democrats roughly an 8-in-9 chance of winning the national House vote and taking the House majority, and projects a seat split of about 224 Democrats to 211 Republicans in a very closely divided chamber.
- Henry OlsenChamber ControlHit · 100Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority.
- David PakmanChamber ControlHit · 100Reviewing the final 2024 forecasts, Pakman said the Senate outcome was essentially settled and stated his own expectation that Republicans would win control of the chamber.
- Erick-Woods EricksonChamber ControlHit · 100He predicted Republicans would gain at least two Senate seats and take control of the chamber, and that the GOP would hold the House with its majority growing to roughly 225 or 230 seats.