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Carter Bahns#18 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 11, 2026

Unsigned CBS Sports preview picks the Texans to beat the Bills in the Week 1 opener in Houston, 24-20.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

48Close · out of 100

Bills 36–31What happenedcalled Texans by 4 · lost by 5

36.83A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge

47.62This callout of 100

#18Carter Bahns’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Carter Bahns said

Pick: Texans 24, Bills 20

Our reading: Houston Texans 24 — Bills 20

Where it was published: CBS Sports
The piece: Bills vs. Texans: Houston seeks fifth consecutive home win over Josh Allen in 2026 season opener
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidSep 11
PlayedSep 13
GradedSep 15

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 47.6 out of 100, against 36.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

Score Predictions Houston Texans
Houston Texans 24 — Bills 20
What happenedBills 36–31called Texans by 4 · lost by 5
47.62Close · naive 36.83
47.62this call36.83a naive guess10.79better than naive2difficulty+21.59skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Bills by 1.5, total 44.5 · this 24–20 calls a Texans win (by 4; the line gave the Texans 50%) and fewer points (44).
How this was scored
score:
36-31
skill:
21.59
they picked:
HOU
season:
2026
accuracy:
47.62
baseline:
36.83
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
5
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
4
Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Bills at TexansBills 36Texans 3134 calls →

Who this take is about

Houston Texans

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

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Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 20-14 on Thursday night and takes the Packers over the Vikings 17-14 in a low-scoring Week 10 game.
Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders at home on Thursday night, projecting a 20-14 final score.

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