Josh Holmes#21 of 21 election pundits · Oct 23, 2026

Holmes said Republicans would be fine in Montana's Senate race after the Democratic candidate refused to drop out, and they remained bullish on Susan Collins winning re-election in Maine despite trailing in polling averages.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Ruthless PodcastHear the original

1 of 2calls landed1 hit · 1 miss · all settled

50Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls

50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

2Races calledevery call on each below

#21Josh Holmes’s rankof 21 ranked election pundits

What Josh Holmes said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I'm still bullish on Susan Collins.

Josh Holmes, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Ruthless Podcast
The episode: Midterm Mayhem: It Gets Worse for Ilhan Omar, MN Senate Candidate's Extremism Exposed
The original: Hear the original
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SaidOct 23
Election DayNov 3
GradedNov 10

1Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Montana“And I think we're gonna be okay in Montana, it seems to me”
2Susan Collins to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine“I'm still bullish on Susan Collins. I think if it can be done, she can do it.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Montana¹	Race Winners	Kurt Alme won	100	100	0
Susan Collins to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine²	Race Winners	Troy Jackson won	0	0	0
2 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · all settled			50	50

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 2 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Race Winners
Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Montana
What happenedKurt Alme woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.02difficulty0skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-mt
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Kurt Alme
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Montana
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kurt Alme
days before the vote when called:
11
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
2Race Winners
Susan Collins to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine
What happenedTroy Jackson woncalled Susan Collins
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.02difficulty0skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2026-senate-me
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Troy Jackson
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine
decided in the:
general
they said:
Susan Collins
days before the vote when called:
11
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
50naive 50

The races in this take

every call on each

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