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2026 Alaska gubernatorial election

Governors · November 3, 2026 · not yet held

The ballot

Beside the pundits

Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.

The market · Polymarket · October 3, 2026

  • Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins75¢
  • Bernadette Wilson18¢
  • Dave Bronson1¢
  • Treg Taylor0¢

A price in cents is the market's probability. Prices move; this is the day's close as we read it.

The polls · VoteHub · 1 poll in 21 days · through September 27, 2026

  • Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins44.0%
  • Bernadette Wilson24.0%
  • Treg Taylor9.0%
  • Dave Bronson8.0%

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins by 20.0 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.

The 7 most recent polls
PollsterDatesSampleResult
Cygnal (REP)2026-09-24 – 2026-09-27502 LVJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 44% · Bernadette Wilson 24% · Treg Taylor 9% · Dave Bronson 8%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research · for AARP2026-09-08 – 2026-09-11800 LVJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 55% · Bernadette Wilson 45%
Alaska Survey Research2026-06-30 – 2026-07-011528 RVTom Begich 50.9% · Bernadette Wilson 49.1%
Alaska Survey Research2026-04-16 – 2026-04-191923 LVTom Begich 54% · Bernadette Wilson 46%
Alaska Survey Research2026-04-16 – 2026-04-19— LVTom Begich 53.9% · Bernadette Wilson 46.1%
Alaska Survey Research2026-04-16 – 2026-04-191923 LVTom Begich 44% · Bernadette Wilson 31% · Click Bishop 25%
Alaska Survey Research2026-04-16 – 2026-04-191923 LVTom Begich 41% · Bernadette Wilson 22% · Click Bishop 19% · Dave Bronson 19%

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Every claim about this race (1)

Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.