Ryan Girdusky#9 of 21 election pundits · Oct 7, 2026
Reviewing governor's race polling, they call Kansas a likely Republican pickup and says Democrats have a very good chance of taking the governorships in Iowa, Alaska and Ohio, while treating Nevada as too close to call.
Said on air or in an interview · The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton ShowHear the original
What Ryan Girdusky said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromRepublicans are likely to pick up Kansas.
- Where it was said
- The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
- The episode
- It's a Numbers Game: The Polling Warning Republicans Can’t Ignore Before the Midterms
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 7
- Election DayNov 3
- GradedNov 10
- 1Democrats to win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election“It does look like Democrats have a very good chance of picking up Iowa, Alaska and Ohio.”
- 2Democrats to win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election“It does look like Democrats have a very good chance of picking up Iowa, Alaska and Ohio.”
- 3Democrats to win the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election“It does look like Democrats have a very good chance of picking up Iowa, Alaska and Ohio.”
- 4Republicans to win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election“Republicans are likely to pick up Kansas.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats to win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election1 | Race Winners | Rob Sand won | 100 | 0 | +104 | |
| Democrats to win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election2 | Race Winners | Amy Acton won | 100 | 0 | +104 | |
| Democrats to win the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election3 | Race Winners | — | — | — | — | |
| Republicans to win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election4 | Race Winners | — | — | — | — | |
| 4 calls · 2 hits · 2 waiting | 100 | 0 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive4 checkable claims — 4 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
2 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Democrats to win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election
What happenedRob Sand woncalled, not yet certified100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.04difficulty=+104skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-governor-ia
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 104
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- a very good chance
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Rob Sand
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Rob Sand
- days before the vote when called:
- 26
- difficulty:
- 1.04
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Democratic
Democrats to win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election
What happenedAmy Acton woncalled, not yet certified100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.04difficulty=+104skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-governor-oh
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 104
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- a very good chance
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Amy Acton
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Amy Acton
- days before the vote when called:
- 26
- difficulty:
- 1.04
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Democratic
Democrats to win the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Republicans to win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 0
The races in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.