J. Miles ColemanOct 6, 2026

Crystal Ball's updated ratings move Alaska's Senate race to Leans Democratic for Mary Peltola, shift Alaska's governorship to Leans Democratic for Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, downgrade Oregon's governor race to Leans Democratic while still expecting Tina Kotek to win, and move South Carolina's Senate race to Likely Republican for Darline Graham, with Minnesota's open Senate seat rated Likely Democratic for Peggy Flanagan. The overall ratings tally gives Democrats 213 House seats and 49 Senate seats at least leaning their way, Republicans 202 and 47.

Published in writing · Sabato's Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics)Read the original

2 of 3calls landed2 hits · 1 miss · 6 waiting

66.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls

66.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

5Races calledevery call on each below

6Waitingnot graded yet

What J. Miles Coleman said

But our general sense for months has been that Alaska, a small, quirky state with a unique election system, was perhaps the most promising red state Senate target for Democrats.

J. Miles Coleman, the lead quote

Where it was published: Sabato's Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics)
The piece: Four Rating Changes, Headlined by Alaska Senate Moving to Leans Democratic
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidOct 6
Election DayNov 3
GradedNov 10

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Misses	Waiting
Race Winners	2	1	2
Seat Counts	0	0	4
All	2	1	6

How each call scored

9 checkable claims — 5 race winners and 4 seat counts — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

3 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Race Winners2 hits · 1 miss · 2 waitingShow ▸

Peggy Flanagan (Democratic) to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota
“Minnesota's open-seat race, where Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) has only held a modest lead over former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya (R) in a race we call Likely Democratic”
Peggy Flanagan woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.04 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-mn
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Likely Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Peggy Flanagan
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota
decided in the:
general
they said:
Peggy Flanagan
days before the vote when called:
27
difficulty:
1.04
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Tina Kotek (Democratic) to win the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election
“We'd still expect Kotek to pull it out in the end... This race moves from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic.”
Tina Kotek woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.04 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-governor-or
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Leans Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Tina Kotek
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2026 Oregon gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tina Kotek
days before the vote when called:
27
difficulty:
1.04
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Darline Graham (Republican) to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina
“Finally, we're flagging South Carolina's Senate race as a Likely Republican sleeper... Graham should be fine in the end”
Annie Andrews woncalled Darline Graham
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.04 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2026-senate-sc
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Likely Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Annie Andrews
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina
decided in the:
general
they said:
Darline Graham
days before the vote when called:
27
difficulty:
1.04
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (Democrats) to win the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election
“but the structure of this race and the polling points to the Democrats. This also moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.”
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Mary Peltola (Democratic) to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Alaska
“Of the Democrats' red state Senate targets, Alaska may be the most promising, and we are moving the race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.”
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

Seat Counts4 waitingShow ▸

“SENATE : 49 at least Leans D, 47 at least Leans R, 4 Toss-ups.”
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
“SENATE : 49 at least Leans D, 47 at least Leans R, 4 Toss-ups.”
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
“HOUSE : 213 at least Leans D, 202 at least Leans R, 20 Toss-ups.”
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
“HOUSE : 213 at least Leans D, 202 at least Leans R, 20 Toss-ups.”
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

The races in this take

every call on each

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More race winners

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