Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

Who called the 2024 elections

Every checkable call named pundits made about the 2024 US elections — who wins each race, by how much, who controls each chamber and with how many seats, and by how much a party wins the national House popular vote — and, once the results are certified, how each one turned out. Graded the same way as everything else on this site: against the certified result, with a naive baseline beside it.

Claims on the record

584

Pundits

96

Graded

581

Election Day

November 5, 2024

The races

How much of each office the record covers, and how many have a certified result loaded.

  • Governors11 races · 3 with claims · 11 with results
  • House436 races · 34 with claims · 435 with results
  • Presidency52 races · 29 with claims · 52 with results
  • Senate35 races · 15 with claims · 35 with results
Every 2024 race pundits called →The election leaderboard →How accurate were 2024 election pundits? →

Congress

Seats by party after the election, as the record has them.

What gets graded

The election prediction types we grade, and how many of each the record holds.

  • Chamber ControlA call on which party controls the Senate or the House after an election. Graded right or wrong once control is settled.53 claims, 53 graded
  • House Popular Vote MarginsHow much a party wins or loses the national popular vote for the House by: the votes of every House race added up. Graded on the distance from the certified national margin.1 claim, 1 graded
  • Race MarginsHow much a candidate wins or loses by: the margin or vote share in one race, or electoral votes for the presidency. Graded on the distance from the certified result.44 claims, 43 graded
  • Race WinnersA call on who wins one race: a Senate or House seat, a governorship, or the presidency, nationally or in one state. Graded right or wrong against the certified winner.464 claims, 462 graded
  • Seat CountsHow many seats a party ends up holding in the Senate or the House, or how many it gains or loses. Graded on the distance from the certified count.21 claims, 21 graded
  • Seats Most Likely to FlipA pundit's ordered list of the seats most likely to change party. Graded against which of them actually flipped and by how much.1 claim, 1 graded

Most called races

Most called people

Parties

Results come from certified public sources — the Federal Election Commission’s compilations, the Clerk of the House’s certified statistics and state canvasses — never from a prediction market, a sportsbook or a poll. The arithmetic is in the methodology.