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Graded under the published methodology. Each call shows what it scored and how much better than a naive guess that was. How this kind is scored →
A first-round mock-draft pick missed where the player actually went by 10.2 picks on average, across 1,676 graded first-round picks; mocked in late day 3 (176+), the average miss grows to 49.6 picks.
Among the 11 pundits with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Chris Brockman has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +50.0, 76.0% accuracy across 36 graded picks.
Among the 15 publishers with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Locked On Chiefs (podcast) has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +49.2, 67.8% accuracy across 53 graded picks.
67% settled
out of 100
Takes in each band
2,919 / 4,387
graded
1,468 still pending
By season
Across the 2,100 graded exact-pick calls from every pundit and every draft, not only the 5 above: average miss on top-ten picks 2.7 slots across 738 calls; rest of round one 7.2 slots across 690.
3776–3800 of 4,387
Zah Frazier to be picked at number 97
97 Minnesota Vikings CB Zah Frazier UTSA
Tez Johnson to be picked at number 137
137 Seattle Seahawks WR Tez Johnson Oregon
Que Robinson to be picked at number 180
180 Las Vegas Raiders EDGE Que Robinson Alabama
Riley Leonard to be picked at number 163
163 Carolina Panthers QB Riley Leonard Notre Dame
Derrick Harmon to be picked at number 30
30. Buffalo Bills Selection: Derrick Harmon, IDL, Oregon
Jordan Burch to be picked at number 76
76 Dallas Cowboys EDGE Jordan Burch Oregon
Walter Nolen to be picked at number 32
32. Philadelphia Eagles Selection: Walter Nolen, IDL, Ole Miss
Cam Horsley to be picked at number 182
182 Jacksonville Jaguars IDL Cam Horsley Boston College
Josh Conerly Jr. to be picked at number 39
39 Chicago Bears OT Josh Conerly Jr Oregon
Simeon Barrow Jr. to be picked at number 228
228 Detroit Lions IDL Simeon Barrow Jr. Miami FL
Darius Alexander to be picked at number 55
55 Los Angeles Chargers IDL Darius Alexander Toledo
Kurtis Rourke to be picked at number 234
234 Seattle Seahawks QB Kurtis Rourke Indiana
Malaki Starks to be picked at number 29
29. Washington Commanders Selection: Malaki Starks, S, Georgia
Emery Jones Jr. to be picked at number 112
112 New Orleans Saints OT Emery Jones Jr. LSU
Omarion Hampton to be picked at number 20
20. Denver Broncos Selection: Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina
Jonah Savaiinaea to be picked at number 50
50 Seattle Seahawks IOL Jonah Savaiinaea Arizona
Malik Verdon to be picked at number 232
232 Indianapolis Colts SAF Malik Verdon Iowa State
Tyler Baron to be picked at number 132
132 Buffalo Bills EDGE Tyler Baron Miami FL
Yahya Black to be picked at number 240
240 Chicago Bears IDL Yahya Black Iowa
Omarr Norman-Lott to be picked at number 74
74 Carolina Panthers IDL Omarr Norman-Lott Tennessee
Smael Mondon Jr. to be picked at number 175
175 Seattle Seahawks LB Smael Mondon Jr. Oregon
Jackson Hawes to be picked at number 166
166 Houston Texans TE Jackson Hawes Georgia Tech
Mason Graham to be picked at number 5
5. Jacksonville Jaguars Selection: Mason Graham, IDL, Michigan
Isaac TeSlaa to be picked at number 135
135 Miami Dolphins WR Isaac TeSlaa Arkansas
T.J. Sanders to be picked at number 69
69 New England Patriots IDL TJ Sanders South Carolina
