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Graded under the published methodology. Each call shows what it scored and how much better than a naive guess that was. How this kind is scored →
A first-round mock-draft pick missed where the player actually went by 10.2 picks on average, across 1,676 graded first-round picks; mocked in late day 3 (176+), the average miss grows to 49.6 picks.
Among the 11 pundits with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Chris Brockman has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +50.0, 76.0% accuracy across 36 graded picks.
Among the 15 publishers with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Locked On Chiefs (podcast) has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +49.2, 67.8% accuracy across 53 graded picks.
67% settled
out of 100
Takes in each band
2,919 / 4,387
graded
1,468 still pending
By season
Across the 2,100 graded exact-pick calls from every pundit and every draft, not only the 5 above: average miss on top-ten picks 2.7 slots across 738 calls; rest of round one 7.2 slots across 690.
3751–3775 of 4,387
Mason Taylor to be picked at number 51
51 Denver Broncos TE Mason Taylor LSU
Luke Kandra to be picked at number 174
174 Dallas Cowboys IOL Luke Kandra Cincinnati
Jared Harrison-Hunte to be picked at number 241
241 Houston Texans IDL Jared Harrison-Hunte SMU
Xavier Restrepo to be picked at number 142
142 Jacksonville Jaguars WR Xavier Restrepo Miami FL
Cobee Bryant to be picked at number 153
153 Cincinnati Bengals CB Cobee Bryant Kansas
Jaylin Noel to be picked at number 57
57 Carolina Panthers WR Jaylin Noel Iowa State
Isas Waxter to be picked at number 238
238 New England Patriots CB Isas Waxter Villanova
Zeek Biggers to be picked at number 177
177 Buffalo Bills IDL Zeek Biggers Georgia Tech
Eli Cox to be picked at number 242
242 Atlanta Falcons IOL Eli Cox Kentucky
Jared Wilson to be picked at number 81
81 Cincinnati Bengals IOL Jared Wilson Georgia
RJ Harvey to be picked at number 149
149 Dallas Cowboys RB RJ Harvey Jr. UCF
Zy Alexander to be picked at number 131
131 New Orleans Saints CB Zy Alexander LSU
Ty Hamilton to be picked at number 161
161 Philadelphia Eagles IDL Ty Hamilton Ohio State
Thomas Perry to be picked at number 254
254 New Orleans Saints IOL Thomas Perry Middlebury
Mike Green to be picked at number 15
15. Atlanta Falcons Selection: Mike Green, EDGE, Marshall
Alfred Collins to be picked at number 48
48 Miami Dolphins IDL Alfred Collins Texas
Jah Joyner to be picked at number 201
201 Los Angeles Rams EDGE Jah Joyner Minnesota
Chandler Martin to be picked at number 224
224 Miami Dolphins LB Chandler Martin Memphis
Jalen Travis to be picked at number 141
141 Tennessee Titans OT Jalen Travis Iowa State
Ajani Cornelius to be picked at number 164
164 Philadelphia Eagles OT Ajani Cornelius Oregon
Howard Cross III to be picked at number 186
186 New York Jets IDL Howard Cross III Notre Dame
Maxen Hook to be picked at number 185
185 Pittsburgh Steelers SAF Maxen Hook Toledo
Chimere Dike to be picked at number 205
205 Washington Commanders WR Chimere Dike Florida
Jaylen Reed to be picked at number 119
119 Cincinnati Bengals SAF Jaylen Reed Penn State
Harold Fannin Jr. to be picked at number 110
110 New York Jets TE Harold Fannin Jr. Bowling Green
