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Graded under the published methodology. Each call shows what it scored and how much better than a naive guess that was. How this kind is scored →
A first-round mock-draft pick missed where the player actually went by 10.2 picks on average, across 1,676 graded first-round picks; mocked in late day 3 (176+), the average miss grows to 49.6 picks.
Among the 11 pundits with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Chris Brockman has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +50.0, 76.0% accuracy across 36 graded picks.
Among the 15 publishers with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Locked On Chiefs (podcast) has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +49.2, 67.8% accuracy across 53 graded picks.
67% settled
out of 100
Takes in each band
2,919 / 4,387
graded
1,468 still pending
By season
Across the 2,100 graded exact-pick calls from every pundit and every draft, not only the 5 above: average miss on top-ten picks 2.7 slots across 738 calls; rest of round one 7.2 slots across 690.
3801–3825 of 4,387
Tyler Batty to be picked at number 173
173 Buffalo Bills EDGE Tyler Batty BYU
Garrett Dellinger to be picked at number 196
196 Detroit Lions IOL Garrett Dellinger LSU
Tyler Booker to be picked at number 27
27. Baltimore Ravens Selection: Tyler Booker, IOL, Alabama
Trey Amos to be picked at number 44
44 Dallas Cowboys CB Trey Amos Ole Miss
Maxwell Hairston to be picked at number 37
37 Las Vegas Raiders CB Maxwell Hairston Kentucky
Sebastian Castro to be picked at number 176
176 Baltimore Ravens SAF Sebastian Castro Iowa
Jaydon Blue to be picked at number 192
192 Cleveland Browns RB Jaydon Blue Texas
Jackson Slater to be picked at number 124
124 Green Bay Packers IOL Jackson Slater Sacramento State
Rayuan Lane III to be picked at number 249
249 San Francisco 49ers SAF Rayuan Lane III Navy
Nohl Williams to be picked at number 123
123 Pittsburgh Steelers CB Nohl Williams California
Elijah Arroyo to be picked at number 36
36 Jacksonville Jaguars TE Elijah Arroyo MIami FL
Abdul Carter to be picked at number 3
3. New York Giants Selection: Abdul Carter, EDGE, Penn State
Moliki Matavao to be picked at number 170
170 Buffalo Bills TE Moliki Matavao UCLA
Dont'e Thornton Jr. to be picked at number 179
179 Cleveland Browns WR Dont'e Thornton Tennessee
Marcus Mbow to be picked at number 71
71 New Orleans Saints IOL Marcus Mbow Purdue
Travis Hunter to be picked at number 2
2. Cleveland Browns Selection: Travis Hunter, CB/WR, Colorado
Jaylin Lane to be picked at number 148
148 Chicago Bears WR Jaylin Lane Virginia Tech
Devin Neal to be picked at number 165
165 Philadelphia Eagles RB Devin Neal Kansas
Jake Majors to be picked at number 219
219 New York Giants IOL Jake Majors Texas
Kain Medrano to be picked at number 214
214 Los Angeles Chargers LB Kain Medrano UCLA
Connor Colby to be picked at number 229
229 Pittsburgh Steelers IOL Connor Colby Iowa
Mac McWilliams to be picked at number 235
235 Tampa Bay Buccaneers CB Mac McWilliams UCF
Sai'vion Jones to be picked at number 120
120 Tennessee Titans EDGE Saivion Jones LSU
Landon Jackson to be picked at number 59
59 Baltimore Ravens EDGE Landon Jackson Arkansas
Emeka Egbuka to be picked at number 25
25. Houston Texans Selection: Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State
