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Graded under the published methodology. Each call shows what it scored and how much better than a naive guess that was. How this kind is scored →
A first-round mock-draft pick missed where the player actually went by 10.2 picks on average, across 1,676 graded first-round picks; mocked in late day 3 (176+), the average miss grows to 49.6 picks.
Among the 11 pundits with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Chris Brockman has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +50.0, 76.0% accuracy across 36 graded picks.
Among the 15 publishers with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Locked On Chiefs (podcast) has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +49.2, 67.8% accuracy across 53 graded picks.
67% settled
out of 100
Takes in each band
2,919 / 4,387
graded
1,468 still pending
By season
Across the 2,100 graded exact-pick calls from every pundit and every draft, not only the 5 above: average miss on top-ten picks 2.7 slots across 738 calls; rest of round one 7.2 slots across 690.
4276–4300 of 4,387
Quinn Ewers to be picked “He's not gonna be a first round quarterback right now” (picks 1–32)
He's not gonna be a first round quarterback right now. Okay? He still has some eligibility left.
Shemar Stewart to be picked “early in the draft”
it isn't hard to see why a freak athlete like Stewart gets his name called early in the draft
James Pearce Jr. to be picked “early”
that's not why a team is drafting Pearce Jr. early
Abdul Carter to be picked “top-10 overall” (picks 1–10)
He is still within my top 10 overall prospects eligible for the 2025 class despite not ranking at No. 1 on this list.
Drake Maye to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)
we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks
Bo Nix to be picked “early second round” (picks 33–64)
Both are getting talked about as possible first-round picks, but they could see a Levis-like fall into the early second round.
Jer'Zhan Newton to be picked at number 15
Our big board has Newton 15th overall and first at the position.
Michael Penix Jr. to be picked “early second round” (picks 33–64)
Both are getting talked about as possible first-round picks, but they could see a Levis-like fall into the early second round.
Caleb Williams to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)
we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks
Jayden Daniels to be picked “surefire early first-round pick” (picks 1–32)
we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks
J.J. McCarthy to be picked “surefire early first-round pick; fourth quarterback off the board” (picks 1–135)
the fourth quarterback off the board ... we have the top four in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and McCarthy, who are all surefire early first-round picks
Braelon Allen to be picked at number 121
9. Braelon Allen, Wisconsin Big Board Rank : 121
Jase McClellan to be picked at number 134
15. Jase McClellan, Alabama Big Board Rank : 134
Jonathon Brooks to be picked at number 66
3. Jonathan Brooks, Texas Big Board Rank : 66
Will Shipley to be picked at number 67
4. Will Shipley, Clemson Big Board Rank : 67
MarShawn Lloyd to be picked at number 128
11. MarShawn Lloyd, USC Big Board Rank : 128
Blake Corum to be picked at number 73
5. Blake Corum, Michigan Big Board Rank : 73
Ray Davis to be picked at number 129
12. Ray Davis, Kentucky Big Board Rank : 129
Cody Schrader to be picked at number 131
14. Cody Schrader, Missouri Big Board Rank : 131
Bucky Irving to be picked at number 109
6. Bucky Irving, Oregon Big Board Rank : 109
Audric Estimé to be picked at number 65
2. Audric Estime, Notre Dame Big Board Rank : 65
Jawhar Jordan to be picked at number 125
10. Jawhar Jordan, Louisville Big Board Rank : 125
Trey Benson to be picked at number 60
1. Trey Benson, Florida State Big Board Rank : 60
Dylan Laube to be picked at number 112
7. Dylan Laube, New Hampshire Big Board Rank : 112
Dillon Johnson to be picked at number 119
8. Dillon Johnson, Washington Big Board Rank : 119
