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Graded under the published methodology. Each call shows what it scored and how much better than a naive guess that was. How this kind is scored →
A first-round mock-draft pick missed where the player actually went by 10.2 picks on average, across 1,676 graded first-round picks; mocked in late day 3 (176+), the average miss grows to 49.6 picks.
Among the 11 pundits with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Chris Brockman has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +50.0, 76.0% accuracy across 36 graded picks.
Among the 15 publishers with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Locked On Chiefs (podcast) has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +49.2, 67.8% accuracy across 53 graded picks.
67% settled
out of 100
Takes in each band
2,919 / 4,387
graded
1,468 still pending
By season
Across the 2,100 graded exact-pick calls from every pundit and every draft, not only the 5 above: average miss on top-ten picks 2.7 slots across 738 calls; rest of round one 7.2 slots across 690.
4301–4325 of 4,387
Jaylen Wright to be picked at number 130
13. Jaylen Wright, Tennessee Big Board Rank : 130
Tyler Owens to be picked “drafted on Day 3” (picks 101–257)
Though he is expected to be drafted on Day 3, the Texas Tech defensive back is one of the best overall athletes in the draft.
Byron Murphy II to be picked “top-15 pick” (picks 1–15)
1. Texas iDL Byron Murphy II emerges as top-15 pick
Jaylen Wright to be picked “day 2 draft capital” (picks 33–100)
Jaylen Wright is going to be the fastest RB at the combine and earn day 2 draft capital.
C.J. Stroud to be picked “top-10 pick” (picks 1–10)
four players who are viewed as definitely going as the top-10 picks ... Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud
Will Anderson Jr. to be picked “top-10 pick” (picks 1–10)
there were four players who are viewed as definitely going as the top-10 picks in the 2023 NFL Draft. They were: Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson
Bryce Young to be picked “top-10 pick” (picks 1–10)
four players who are viewed as definitely going as the top-10 picks ... Alabama quarterback Bryce Young
Peter Skoronski to be picked “top-10 choice” (picks 1–10)
Another player who was viewed as very likely to end up as top-10 choice was Northwestern offensive tackle Peter Skoronski.
Tyree Wilson to be picked “top-10 pick” (picks 1–10)
four players who are viewed as definitely going as the top-10 picks ... Texas Tech defensive end Tyree Wilson
Drake Maye to be picked “top-two pick” (picks 1–2)
has the arm strength, accuracy, IQ, and dual-threat talent to warrant a top-two pick
Caleb Williams to be picked at number 1
He's expected to hear his name called first overall next spring.
Tyree Wilson to be picked at number 5
The Seahawks are predicted to draft Tyree Wilson (EDGE, Texas Tech) with their No. 5 overall pick
Bijan Robinson to be picked “1st round pick”
has the Cowboys predicted to draft Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.
Will Anderson Jr. to be picked at number 2
The Texans are predicted to draft Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama) with the No. 2 overall pick ... according to the most recent mock draft from Ryan McCrystal.
Joey Porter Jr. to be picked “first-round pick” (picks 1–31)
has the Steelers predicted to draft Joey Porter Jr. (CB, Penn State) with their first-round pick according to his most recent mock draft.
Lukas Van Ness to be picked at number 8
The Falcons are predicted to draft Lukas Van Ness (EDGE, Iowa) with their 1st-round pick (#8 overall) according to the most recent mock draft from Ryan McCrystal.
Devon Witherspoon to be picked at number 7
The Raiders are predicted to draft Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois) with their 1st round pick (#7 overall) according to the most recent mock draft from Ryan McCrystal.
Jalen Carter to be picked at number 10
The Eagles are predicted to draft Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia) with the No. 10 pick
Jordan Addison to be picked at number 20
Jordan Addison (WR, Boston College) with the 20th pick according to his most recent mock draft.
Peter Skoronski to be picked at number 11
The Titans are predicted to draft Peter Skoronski (OT, Northwestern) with their 1st-round pick (#11 overall) according to the most recent mock draft from Ryan McCrystal.
Nolan Smith to be picked at number 13
The Jets are predicted to draft Nolan Smith (EDGE, Georgia) with their 1st round pick (#13 overall) according to the most recent mock draft from Ryan McCrystal.
BJ Ojulari to be picked at number 36
Mock draft expert Ryan McCrystal predicts the Rams could target a pass rusher like BJ Ojulari (EDGE, LSU) with their top pick at No. 36 overall in the second round.
Dawand Jones to be picked at number 31
The Chiefs are predicted to draft Dawand Jones (OT, Ohio State) with their 1st round pick (#31 overall) according to the most recent mock draft from Ryan McCrystal.
Dalton Kincaid to be picked “1st round pick”
has the Chargers predicted to draft Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.
Bryce Young to be picked at number 1
Brendan Donahue, also has the Panthers predicted to draft Bryce Young (QB, Alabama) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.
