David Nir#17 of 21 election pundits · Sep 27, 2024

Nir writes that Republicans are essentially certain to take the West Virginia Senate seat, that both Florida and Texas will stay Republican at the presidential level, and that two New Jersey Democrats — Donald Norcross and Herb Conaway — are on track to win their House races.

Published in writing · The Downballot (newsletter)Read the original

5 of 5calls landed5 hits · all settled

100Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls

80A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

5Races calledevery call on each below

#17David Nir’s rankof 21 ranked election pundits

What David Nir said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

Both Florida and Texas are likely to remain red at the top of the ticket

David Nir, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was published: The Downballot (newsletter)
The piece: Morning Digest: Senate Democrats say they'll expand the battlefield to Texas and Florida
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidSep 27, 2024
Election DayNov 5, 2024
GradedOct 9, 2026

1Herb Conaway to win the 2024 U.S. House election in New Jersey's district 3“Assemblyman Herb Conaway, who is poised to win an open House seat in November, is also backing Sweeney.”
2red to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Florida“Both Florida and Texas are likely to remain red at the top of the ticket: Donald Trump carried both states during each of his presidential bids”
3red to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Texas“Both Florida and Texas are likely to remain red at the top of the ticket: Donald Trump carried both states during each of his presidential bids”
4Senate Republicans to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia“With Senate Republicans all but assured of flipping West Virginia and polling ahead of Sen. Jon Tester in Montana”
5Donald Norcross to win the 2024 U.S. House election in New Jersey's district 1“Neither Donald Norcross, who is on a glide path to reelection this year, nor Sweeney were implicated.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Herb Conaway to win the 2024 U.S. House election in New Jersey's district 3¹	Race Winners	Herb Conaway won	100	100	0
red to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Florida²	Race Winners	Donald Trump won	100	100	0
red to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Texas³	Race Winners	Donald Trump won	100	100	0
Senate Republicans to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia⁴	Race Winners	Jim Justice won	100	0	+105
Donald Norcross to win the 2024 U.S. House election in New Jersey's district 1⁵	Race Winners	Donald Norcross won	100	100	0
5 calls · 5 hits · all settled			100	80

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

5 checkable claims — 5 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 5 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Race Winners
Herb Conaway to win the 2024 U.S. House election in New Jersey's district 3
What happenedHerb Conaway woncertified result
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.05difficulty0skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-nj-03
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
poised to win an open House seat in November
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Herb Conaway
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in New Jersey's district 3
decided in the:
general
they said:
Herb Conaway
days before the vote when called:
38
difficulty:
1.05
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
2Race Winners
red to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Florida
What happenedDonald Trump woncertified result
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.05difficulty0skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-fl
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
likely to remain red at the top of the ticket
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Florida
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
38
difficulty:
1.05
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
3Race Winners
red to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Texas
What happenedDonald Trump woncertified result
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.05difficulty0skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-tx
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
likely to remain red at the top of the ticket
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Texas
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
38
difficulty:
1.05
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
4Race Winners
Senate Republicans to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia
What happenedJim Justice woncertified result
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.05difficulty+105skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-wv
election year:
2024
skill:
105
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Independent
in their words:
all but assured of flipping West Virginia
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Jim Justice
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jim Justice
days before the vote when called:
38
difficulty:
1.05
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
5Race Winners
Donald Norcross to win the 2024 U.S. House election in New Jersey's district 1
What happenedDonald Norcross woncertified result
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.05difficulty0skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-nj-01
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
on a glide path to reelection
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Donald Norcross
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in New Jersey's district 1
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Norcross
days before the vote when called:
38
difficulty:
1.05
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 80

The races in this take

every call on each

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More race winners

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