Carlos OdioOct 13, 2024
Discussing Florida, they said a 13- or 10-point Trump win is outside their expectation and that a roughly four-point Trump lead is more in line with what they expect, given only marginal defection from 2020 patterns.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Pod Save AmericaHear the original
What Carlos Odio said
Trump winning by 10 seems a little bit outside of what my expectation would be.
- Where it was said
- Pod Save America
- The episode
- Why You Shouldn't Panic About the Polls
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 13, 2024
- Election DayNov 5, 2024
- GradedOct 9, 2026
How the call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveOne checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 9 out of 100, against 2.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Trump at 4 points in the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Florida
What happenedDonald Trump won9Miss · naive 2.69this call−2.6a naive guess=6.4better than naive×1.03difficulty=+6.59skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- race:
- 2024-president-fl
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 6.59
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 13.1
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- zero credit this far off:
- 10
- what they counted:
- margin in points
- whose number:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 9
- baseline:
- 2.6
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Florida
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- 4
- days before the vote when called:
- 23
- difficulty:
- 1.03
- they won:
- yes
- the naive guess:
- the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the certified margin:
- 13.1
- their party:
- Republican
- the naive guess said:
- 3.36
The race in this take
every call on eachMore race margins
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Tom Bevan · Race Margins · Hit 81
Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.Ben Shapiro · Race Margins · Miss 6
Ahead of the midterm elections, Shapiro predicted Republican wins in several marquee races: Marco Rubio beating Val Demings in Florida's Senate race, Brian Kemp defeating Stacey Abrams in Georgia, Ron DeSantis beating Charlie Crist by roughly 10 points, and Kari Lake winning the Arizona governorship.Steve Deace · Race Margins · Miss 36
Deace forecast a "red tsunami": Republicans gaining roughly 54 House seats, winning 56 Senate seats, and capturing governorships in 36 states including New York, Minnesota, Colorado and Pennsylvania. They also said Ron DeSantis would set a Florida record for the largest GOP gubernatorial margin, that Chuck Grassley would not lose in Iowa, and that Kim Reynolds would win big.Jason Johnson · Race Margins · Miss 36
Johnson predicted Republicans would take both chambers, ending with about 230 House seats and about 53 Senate seats, and picked Lee Zeldin in New York and a Republican win in the New Hampshire Senate race as their biggest upsets. They also agreed DeSantis would break Florida's GOP gubernatorial margin record.