Dirk Koetter· Sep 6, 2022
Koetter's ballot: Josh Allen MVP, Allen also for Offensive Player of the Year, T.J. Watt DPOY, Chris Olave OROY, Sauce Gardner DROY, Jameis Winston Comeback Player and Sean McDermott Coach of the Year.
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Sep 7, 2022) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
7 checkable claims — 6 award picks and 1 coach award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 14.3 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Award PicksJosh AllenBuffalo BillsSep 6, 2022
Josh Allen to win Most Valuable Player
“1. Bills QB Josh Allen (7 votes: ... Dirk Koetter ...)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Aaron Rodgers, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Josh Allen
- season:
- 2022
- winner:
- Patrick Mahomes
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Coach Award PicksBuffalo BillsSep 6, 2022
Sean McDermott to win Coach of the Year
“T3. Bills coach Sean McDermott (2 votes: Koetter, Smith)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- coach_of_the_year
- coach:
- Sean McDermott
- naive:
- the naive pick was Mike Vrabel, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2022
- winner:
- Brian Daboll
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Award PicksJosh AllenBuffalo BillsSep 6, 2022
Josh Allen to win Offensive Player of the Year
“2. Bills QB Josh Allen (4 votes: Davis, Koetter, Martz, Zimmer)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- offensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Cooper Kupp, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Josh Allen
- season:
- 2022
- winner:
- Justin Jefferson
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Award PicksChris OlaveNew Orleans SaintsSep 6, 2022
Chris Olave to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
“1. Saints WR Chris Olave (6 votes: Cassel, Koetter, ...)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- offensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Ja'Marr Chase, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Chris Olave
- season:
- 2022
- winner:
- Garrett Wilson
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Award PicksT.J. WattPittsburgh SteelersSep 6, 2022
T.J. Watt to win Defensive Player of the Year
“T2. Steelers LB T.J. Watt (3 votes: Koetter, Lewis, Phillps)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- defensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was T.J. Watt, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- T.J. Watt
- season:
- 2022
- winner:
- Nick Bosa
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Award PicksSauce GardnerNew York JetsSep 6, 2022
Sauce Gardner to win Defensive Rookie of the Year
“Jets CB Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner (1 vote: Koetter)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- defensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Micah Parsons, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Sauce Gardner
- season:
- 2022
- winner:
- Sauce Gardner
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Award PicksJameis WinstonNew Orleans SaintsSep 6, 2022
Jameis Winston to win Comeback Player of the Year
“1. Saints QB Jameis Winston (6 votes: Koetter, ...)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- comeback_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Joe Burrow, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jameis Winston
- season:
- 2022
- winner:
- Geno Smith
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Ross JacksonScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 38Ross Jackson picked the Saints to beat the Raiders at home, projecting a 27-24 final score with the Raiders scoring 24 points.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Pittsburgh SteelersMiss · 14Simms went through every Week 2 game with predicted final scores, picking the Texans, Bears, Steelers (as an upset), Packers, Ravens, Eagles, Buccaneers, Panthers, Jaguars, Seahawks, Cowboys, 49ers, Chargers, Chiefs and Rams to win. He also reiterated that Denver was his preseason Super Bowl pick while predicting the Broncos would fall to 0-2.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Rogers predicted the Bills would beat the Lions in their new stadium on Thursday night, winning by a touchdown.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 48Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Ralph VentreRoster Spot Calls · Christian BenfordMiss · 0Ventre expects Christian Benford's toe injury to sideline him for at least the Week 4 game against New England, and believes the Bills will have to add a cornerback to the 53-man roster this week — likely by moving Benford to injured reserve — with practice squad rookie Kani Walker the most likely player elevated.
More award picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Gregg RosenthalAward Picks · Tristan WirfsMiss · 0Rosenthal picked Patrick Mahomes for MVP, Micah Parsons for Defensive Player of the Year, Jahmyr Gibbs for Offensive Player of the Year, Aaron Glenn for Coach of the Year, Travis Hunter for both Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, Bill Callahan for Assistant Coach of the Year and Tristan Wirfs for Protector of the Year. He also made depth-chart calls on Adam Thielen and Jalen Coker.
- Jourdan RodrigueAward Picks · Penei SewellMiss · 0Rodrigue picked Patrick Mahomes for MVP, Jared Verse for Defensive Player of the Year, Ja'Marr Chase for Offensive Player of the Year, Mike Vrabel for Coach of the Year, TreVeyon Henderson for Offensive Rookie of the Year and Abdul Carter for Defensive Rookie of the Year, with Jesse Minter for Assistant Coach of the Year and Penei Sewell for Protector of the Year.
- Brandon SneideAward Picks · Drake MayeMiss · 0Snyder picks the Seahawks to beat the Patriots 31-23 in Super Bowl 60, believing Seattle pulls away late, and says Drake Maye will finish second in MVP voting behind Matthew Stafford.
- Nick WrightAward Picks · Rashid ShaheedMiss · 0Nick picked Seattle to win the Super Bowl 27-17, citing Seattle's defense, coaching against young quarterbacks and schedule strength, and named Rasheed Shaheed as his dark horse Super Bowl MVP.
- Chris BroussardAward Picks · Cooper KuppMiss · 0Broussard picked New England to beat Seattle 24-21, with Drake May winning Super Bowl MVP, and named Cooper Kupp as his dark horse MVP.
- Eric ManginiAward Picks · Drake MayeMiss · 0Mangini picked the Patriots 23-20 with Drake May as Super Bowl MVP, and earlier named Kayshon Boutte ("Kaeshawn Booty") as his dark horse MVP.