Dirk KoetterSep 6, 2022

Koetter's ballot: Josh Allen MVP, Allen also for Offensive Player of the Year, T.J. Watt DPOY, Chris Olave OROY, Sauce Gardner DROY, Jameis Winston Comeback Player and Sean McDermott Coach of the Year.

Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original

1 of 7calls landed1 hit · 6 misses · all settled

14.3Average accuracyout of 100, across 7 calls

0A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

7 of 7Settlednone still waiting

0Waitingnot graded yet

What Dirk Koetter said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

Dirk Koetter, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was published: The 33rd Team
The piece: 2022 NFL Awards Predictions: MVP, Rookies of the Year, and More - The 33rd Team
The original: The copy as archived Sep 7, 2022
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.

SaidSep 5, 2022
GradedAug 5, 2026

1Josh Allen to win Most Valuable Player“1. Bills QB Josh Allen (7 votes: ... Dirk Koetter ...)”
2Sean McDermott to win Coach of the Year“T3. Bills coach Sean McDermott (2 votes: Koetter, Smith)”
3Josh Allen to win Offensive Player of the Year“2. Bills QB Josh Allen (4 votes: Davis, Koetter, Martz, Zimmer)”
4Chris Olave to win Offensive Rookie of the Year“1. Saints WR Chris Olave (6 votes: Cassel, Koetter, ...)”
5T.J. Watt to win Defensive Player of the Year“T2. Steelers LB T.J. Watt (3 votes: Koetter, Lewis, Phillps)”
6Sauce Gardner to win Defensive Rookie of the Year“Jets CB Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner (1 vote: Koetter)”
7Jameis Winston to win Comeback Player of the Year“1. Saints QB Jameis Winston (6 votes: Koetter, ...)”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Skill
Josh Allen to win Most Valuable Player¹	Award Picks	Patrick Mahomes won	0	0
Sean McDermott to win Coach of the Year²	Coach Award Picks	Brian Daboll won	0	0
Josh Allen to win Offensive Player of the Year³	Award Picks	Justin Jefferson won	0	0
Chris Olave to win Offensive Rookie of the Year⁴	Award Picks	Garrett Wilson won	0	0
T.J. Watt to win Defensive Player of the Year⁵	Award Picks	Nick Bosa won	0	0
Sauce Gardner to win Defensive Rookie of the Year⁶	Award Picks	Sauce Gardner won	100	+200
Jameis Winston to win Comeback Player of the Year⁷	Award Picks	Geno Smith won	0	0
7 calls · 1 hit · 6 misses · all settled			14.3

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

7 checkable claims — 6 award picks and 1 coach award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 7 have settled, averaging 14.3 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Award Picks Josh Allen Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen to win Most Valuable Player
What happenedPatrick Mahomes woncalled Josh Allen
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Aaron Rodgers, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Josh Allen
season:
2022
who won:
Patrick Mahomes
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
2Coach Award Picks Buffalo Bills
Sean McDermott to win Coach of the Year
What happenedBrian Daboll woncalled Sean McDermott
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
coach_of_the_year
coach:
Sean McDermott
naive:
the naive pick was Mike Vrabel, who won it the year before
skill:
0
season:
2022
who won:
Brian Daboll
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
3Award Picks Josh Allen Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen to win Offensive Player of the Year
What happenedJustin Jefferson woncalled Josh Allen
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
offensive_player_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Cooper Kupp, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Josh Allen
season:
2022
who won:
Justin Jefferson
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
4Award Picks Chris Olave New Orleans Saints
Chris Olave to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
What happenedGarrett Wilson woncalled Chris Olave
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
offensive_rookie_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Ja'Marr Chase, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Chris Olave
season:
2022
who won:
Garrett Wilson
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
5Award Picks T.J. Watt Pittsburgh Steelers
T.J. Watt to win Defensive Player of the Year
What happenedNick Bosa woncalled T.J. Watt
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
defensive_player_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was T.J. Watt, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
T.J. Watt
season:
2022
who won:
Nick Bosa
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
6Award Picks Sauce Gardner New York Jets
Sauce Gardner to win Defensive Rookie of the Year
What happenedSauce Gardner won
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive2difficulty+200skill
How this was scored
award:
defensive_rookie_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Micah Parsons, who won it the year before
skill:
200
player:
Sauce Gardner
season:
2022
who won:
Sauce Gardner
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
7Award Picks Jameis Winston New Orleans Saints
Jameis Winston to win Comeback Player of the Year
What happenedGeno Smith woncalled Jameis Winston
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
comeback_player_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Joe Burrow, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Jameis Winston
season:
2022
who won:
Geno Smith
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 7 settled calls, each counted once
14.3naive 0