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Kurt WarnerSep 10, 2025

Warner said JJ McCarthy is the more likely quarterback to see going forward over Caleb Williams, named Daniel Jones as their top Week 1 quarterback performance, said Green Bay is a better football team than Chicago, and leaned toward Aaron Rodgers over Justin Fields going forward.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)Hear the original

0Miss · out of 100
Finished #18What happenedcalled #1 · by passing yards
16.67A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
0This callout of 100
−32.33Skillafter difficulty

What Kurt Warner said

I think Green Bay is a good football team. I think they're better than Chicago.
Our reading: Daniel Jones to finish top 1 at his position, by passing yards
The episode
Hour 1: Kurt Warner Breaks Down NFL Week 1 QBs + Rich’s Top 5 Surprising Teams
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidSep 10, 2025
  2. GradedAug 13, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

The call scored 0 out of 100, against 16.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

positional finish
1They said
18What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. Positional FinishesDaniel JonesIndianapolis Colts

    Daniel Jones to finish top 1 at his position, by passing yards

    What happenedFinished #18called #1 · by passing yards
    0Miss · naive 16.67
    0this call16.67a naive guess−16.67worse than naive1.94difficulty−32.33skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    −32.33
    player:
    Daniel Jones
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    12
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    16.67
    position:
    QB
    ranked by:
    passing yards
    difficulty:
    1.94
    the naive guess:
    where he finished last season
    weeks in the season:
    18
    naive finish:
    28
    actual finish:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    predicted finish:
    1
    Think this is wrong?

Others on the same people

More positional finishes

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.