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2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

Governors · November 3, 2026 · not yet held

The ballot

Beside the pundits

Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.

The market · Polymarket · October 3, 2026

  • Kelly Ayotte96¢
  • Cinde Warmington4¢

A price in cents is the market's probability. Prices move; this is the day's close as we read it.

The polls · VoteHub · 2 polls in 21 days · through September 22, 2026

  • Kelly Ayotte49.5%
  • Cinde Warmington42.0%

Kelly Ayotte by 7.5 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.

The 12 most recent polls
PollsterDatesSampleResult
The New York Times/Siena University2026-09-15 – 2026-09-22613 LVKelly Ayotte 52% · Cinde Warmington 41%
University of New Hampshire2026-09-17 – 2026-09-211418 LVKelly Ayotte 47% · Cinde Warmington 43% · Stephen Villee 2%
co/efficient2026-09-09 – 2026-09-11958 LVKelly Ayotte 55% · Cinde Warmington 34%
University of New Hampshire2026-08-20 – 2026-08-241878 LVKelly Ayotte 49% · Cinde Warmington 39%
Saint Anselm College Survey Center2026-08-17 – 2026-08-181411 LVKelly Ayotte 49% · Cinde Warmington 38%
Saint Anselm2026-06-24 – 2026-06-251614 RVKelly Ayotte 45% · Cinde Warmington 37%
University of New Hampshire2026-06-18 – 2026-06-23—Kelly Ayotte 44% · Cinde Warmington 39%
University of New Hampshire2026-04-17 – 2026-04-211117 LVKelly Ayotte 47% · Cinde Warmington 39%
Saint Anselm2026-03-16 – 2026-03-181491 RVKelly Ayotte 45% · Jon Kiper 31%
Saint Anselm2026-03-16 – 2026-03-181491 RVKelly Ayotte 46% · Cinde Warmington 39%
yes. every kid.2026-01-28 – 2026-01-29563 LVKelly Ayotte 47% · Jon Kiper 37%
University of New Hampshire2026-01-15 – 2026-01-192031 LVKelly Ayotte 50% · Jon Kiper 39%

The field, week by week

Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.

Sep 20Sep 27Oct 4
Kelly Ayotte 2· 2 pundits on record this week

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Every claim about this race (3)

Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.