Chris Brockman· May 4, 2026
Brockman predicted only Stafford and Josh Allen of last year's MVP vote-getters get votes again, Fernando Mendoza starts and wins Rookie of the Year, the Colts win the AFC South, AJ Brown is traded to New England leaving DeVonta Smith as Philadelphia's clear No. 1 and a breakout star, five running backs top 1,600 yards, George Pickens breaks a Cowboys receiving record, and Justin Fields starts for Kansas City in September.
“Fernando Mendoza's winning rookie of the year.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
16 checkable claims — 8 player season numbers, 3 award picks, 3 depth chart calls, 1 division winner and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 20 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
1 of 16 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 5 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands above the room on 2 and below it on 3.
Where this call stands in the room
Fernando Mendoza · 2026 season18 calls from 16 pundits between 1 and 2. Chris Brockman said 1. the room's median is 1. not settled yet
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
16 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
A.J. Brown to move to New England Patriots
“Devante Smith is gonna have an Ole Miss teammate leave town. AJ Brown's going to New England.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- A.J. Brown
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- NE
- was with:
- PHI
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- reported:
- traded → NE (from PHI)
- settled by:
- a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Player Season NumbersDerrick HenryMay 4, 2026
Derrick Henry to record 1,600 rushing yards
“Derrick Henry does it... They just got a left guard who I think is gonna make the pro football hall of fame”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Player Season NumbersJahmyr GibbsMay 4, 2026
Jahmyr Gibbs to record 1,600 rushing yards
“Jameer Gibbs is gonna get nothing Gibbs. Gibbs is gonna do it.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Player Season NumbersDe'Von AchaneMay 4, 2026
De'Von Achane to record 1,600 rushing yards
“Devin hanging. A chan. 1,600 yards. Mhmm. With Malik Willis who can't throw it to first base.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
DeVonta Smith to be 1st on the depth chart
“This is gonna be Devante Smith's first year as the clear cut number one wide receiver in Philadelphia.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Player Season NumbersBijan RobinsonMay 4, 2026
Bijan Robinson to record 1,600 rushing yards
“Bijan. Bijan's doing it.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Award PicksJosh AllenMay 4, 2026
Josh Allen to win receives MVP votes
“Only two are gonna get votes this year... I think it's gonna be Stafford and and Allen.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Division WinnersIndianapolis ColtsMay 4, 2026
Indianapolis Colts to win the division
“I don't I wanna go Colts. Colts?”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Award PicksFernando MendozaLas Vegas RaidersMay 4, 2026
Fernando Mendoza to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
“Even if he doesn't start until October, and he is gonna start this year Okay. Fernando Mendoza's winning rookie of the year.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Kenneth Walker III to record 1,600 rushing yards
“I think k nine in Kansas City gets it. Not a chance.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Player Season NumbersAshton JeantyMay 4, 2026
Ashton Jeanty to record 1,600 rushing yards
“I think Genti does it. You're out of your mind, dude... He had 2,000 yards in college.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Justin Fields to be 1st on the depth chart
“Even if Mahomes is ready to start week one, the Chiefs to start Justin Fields for all of September.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
George Pickens to record 1,750 receiving yards
“George Pickett is gonna set a cowboys receiving record this year. I don't know if it's receptions, one thirty five, or yards, seventeen fifty, both set by CD in 2023. He's breaking one of those.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Award PicksMatthew StaffordMay 4, 2026
Matthew Stafford to win receives MVP votes
“Only two are gonna get votes this year... I think it's gonna be Stafford and and Allen.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Player Season NumbersJames CookMay 4, 2026
James Cook to record 1,600 rushing yards
“We're gonna have five top 1,600 this year... You say James Cook does it again.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Fernando Mendoza to be 1st on the depth chart
“he is gonna start this year... And by the way, I think he's gonna start week one”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Philadelphia EaglesMiss · 0Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Jake ArthurScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City.
- Zach HicksScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Hicks predicts a lower-scoring, field-goal-heavy game with the Chiefs beating the Colts 23-19, citing Indianapolis' red-zone success against Kansas City historically.
More player season numbers
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ross JacksonPlayer Season Numbers · Tyler ShoughMiss · 4Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Chris BroussardPlayer Season Numbers · Lamar JacksonMiss · 0Broussard expects Lamar Jackson to play well but not vintage — two touchdown passes and no picks — while Derrick Henry carries the load with over 100 rushing yards. He also takes the Browns to upset the Bengals and believes Myles Garrett gets at least two sacks to break the single-season record.
- Nick WrightPlayer Season Numbers · Myles GarrettHit · 100Wright picks the Steelers to beat the Ravens outright in Pittsburgh, takes Seattle over San Francisco, and thinks the Browns lose to Cincinnati even as Myles Garrett gets the sack record.
- Nick WrightPlayer Season Numbers · Myles GarrettHit · 84Nick Wright says Myles Garrett is playing at an all-time level and might reach 25 sacks this season, and among his weekly picks he expects the Bears to beat the Steelers in an ugly low-margin home win and Seattle to win comfortably at Tennessee.
- Shannon SharpePlayer Season Numbers · T.J. WattMiss · 0On a Bengals-Steelers matchup, Sharpe took the over on several player props: Ja'Marr Chase over 74.5 receiving yards, Joe Flacco over 36.5 pass attempts, and T.J. Watt over 3.5 tackles+assists, adding that Watt will get two sacks. He also predicted Rico Dowdle would make the Pro Bowl this season.
- Rich EisenPlayer Season Numbers · Micah ParsonsClose · 56Eisen made a series of picks: Micah Parsons will out-sack any two Cowboys combined (after initially leaning the other way), the NFC North is more likely to produce a Super Bowl team than the NFC East, Eagles wins will outnumber Cowboys losses, Bo Nix/Courtland Sutton will out-touchdown Cam Ward/Calvin Ridley, and Marvin Harrison Jr./James Conner will beat Kamara/Olave in yards and TDs. He also picked the AFC West order and said Deion Sanders is more likely than Bill Belichick to have a winning record.