Ruiz said Ja'Marr Chase could put together an Offensive Player of the Year-caliber season and that Caleb Williams, if they gain consistent downfield accuracy, could be one of the five best quarterbacks in the league.

2 checkable claims — 1 award pick and 1 positional finish — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.

Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.