Craig StoutMar 26, 2026
Craig says Arvell Reese is a top-five pick in this draft class but will not be a Micah Parsons-level player, and they view both Mekhi Lemmon and Carnell Tate as top-10 selections.
Said on air, transcribed by us · KC Sports Network (podcast)Hear the original
1 of 3calls landed1 hit · 1 close call · 1 miss · all settled
54.9Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
3 of 3Settlednone still waiting
0Waitingnot graded yet
What Craig Stout said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromArvel Reese is a very good player. He is a top five pick in this draft.
- Where it was said
- KC Sports Network (podcast)
- The episode
- KC Laboratory 3/25: Deciding the Best Position Order for the Chiefs’ Top 2026 Draft Picks!
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidMar 25
- GradedOct 1
- 1Colonel Tate to be picked “projected top 10 picks” (picks 1–10)“Both are, you know, projected top 10 picks here. But Colonel Tate is a different style of wide receiver... two guys within the top 10 here”
- 2Makai Lemon to be picked “projected top 10 picks” (picks 1–10)“Both are, you know, projected top 10 picks here... whereas McKay Lemmon's more of your shiftier slot type guy... two guys within the top 10 here”
- 3Arvell Reese to be picked “a top five pick in this draft” (picks 1–5)“Arvel Reese is a very good player. He is a top five pick in this draft.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colonel Tate to be picked “projected top 10 picks” (picks 1–10)1 | Mock Draft Picks | Went undrafted | 0 | 50 | — | |
| Makai Lemon to be picked “projected top 10 picks” (picks 1–10)2 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 20 | 64.84 | 50 | — | |
| Arvell Reese to be picked “a top five pick in this draft” (picks 1–5)3 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 5 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| 3 calls · 1 hit · 1 close call · 1 miss · all settled | 54.9 | 50 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive3 checkable claims — 3 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 54.9 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall pickprojected top 10 picks (picks 1–10)They said
undraftedWhat happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Colonel Tate to be picked “projected top 10 picks” (picks 1–10)
What happenedWent undrafted0Miss · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Colonel Tate
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- projected top 10 picks (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Makai Lemon to be picked “projected top 10 picks” (picks 1–10)
What happenedWent 2064.84Close · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Makai Lemon
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 64.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 20
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 64.84
- predicted pick:
- projected top 10 picks (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Arvell Reese to be picked “a top five pick in this draft” (picks 1–5)
What happenedWent 5100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- a top five pick in this draft (picks 1–5)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
54.9naive 50
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Jaime Eisner · Mock Draft Picks · Arvell Reese · Hit 88
A seven-round Jets mock draft projecting New York to take Ohio State's Arvell Reese at No. 2 and Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson at No. 16, followed by Ty Simpson, Brandon Cisse, Jalon Kilgore, Tyreak Sapp, Kaelon Black, Fernando Carmona and Trebor Pena.Nick Wright · Mock Draft Picks · Makai Lemon · Close 74
Nick Wright unveiled their full 32-pick 2026 NFL mock draft 4.0, starting with Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1 and ending with Avion Terrell to the Seahawks at 32. They also called Carnell Tate the best/safest receiver in the class, projected Ty Simpson inside the top 45, said Mendoza profiles as a low-end top-15 NFL quarterback, and expected the Dolphins to lose 15 games.Danny Parkins · Mock Draft Picks · Arvell Reese · Hit 92
Danny Parkins presented their one-and-only 2026 mock draft, including trades: Mendoza at 1 to the Raiders, David Bailey second to the Jets, the Cowboys trading up to No. 3 for Arvell Reese, the Bears trading up to 16 for Kadyn Proctor, and Ty Simpson going to Arizona at 32 at the end of round one.David Harrison · Mock Draft Picks · Makai Lemon · Close 68
Harrison delivers their only first-round mock draft for the 2026 NFL Draft, projecting all 32 first-round picks (including several trades) plus the rest of Washington's projected class, while noting it is an exercise in what could happen rather than a firm forecast.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Simms · Mock Draft Picks · Malachi Corley · Miss 11
Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore.Philip Hughes · Mock Draft Picks · Kyle Kennard · Miss 34
Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection.Blaine Grisak · Mock Draft Picks · Brian Thomas Jr. · Hit 84
Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.