Lakshya Jain#14 of 21 election pundits · Oct 19, 2024

Split Ticket's forecast gives Kamala Harris a 53% chance of winning the presidency, and Jain says that if forced to pick a winner they'd still pick Harris. The model also gives Democrats a 53% chance of taking the House, with Democrats favored in 212 seats and Republicans in 209, while Republicans are firm favorites in 51 Senate seats and extremely likely to retake the Senate majority.

Published in writing · Split TicketRead the original

5 of 13calls landed5 hits · 4 close calls · 4 misses · all settled

56.1Average accuracyout of 100, across 13 calls

56.1A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

8Races calledevery call on each below

#14Lakshya Jain’s rankof 21 ranked election pundits

What Lakshya Jain said

If you forced us to pick a winner from this incredibly uncertain picture, we'd still probably pick Harris

Lakshya Jain, the lead quote

Where it was published: Split Ticket
The piece: Temperature Check (10/19): The Signal And The Noise
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidOct 19, 2024
Election DayNov 5, 2024
GradedOct 9, 2026

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Close	Misses
Seat Counts	1	2	0
Race Winners	3	0	3
Race Margins	0	2	0
Control of Congress	1	0	1
All	5	4	4

How each call scored

13 checkable claims — 6 race winners, 3 seat counts, 2 control of congress and 2 race margins — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 13 have settled, averaging 56.1 out of 100, against 56.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

209They said

220What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

Seat Counts1 hit · 2 close callsShow ▸

“by our estimates, Democrats are favored in 212 seats, Republicans are favored in 209, and 14 seats are tossups”
220called 209
45Close
45 − 90 naive = −45 × 1.02 difficulty = −45.9 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
party:
Republican
seats after:
220
skill:
−45.9
topic:
elections
what happened:
220
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
45
baseline:
90
they said:
209
days before the vote when called:
16
difficulty:
1.02
seats before:
222
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the naive guess said:
222
Think this is wrong?
“Republicans remain firm favorites in 51 seats”
53called 51
60Close
60 − 20 naive = 40 × 1.02 difficulty = +40.8 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
party:
Republican
seats after:
53
skill:
40.8
topic:
elections
what happened:
53
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
60
baseline:
20
they said:
51
days before the vote when called:
16
difficulty:
1.02
seats before:
49
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the naive guess said:
49
Think this is wrong?
“by our estimates, Democrats are favored in 212 seats, Republicans are favored in 209, and 14 seats are tossups”
215called 212
85Hit
85 − 90 naive = −5 × 1.02 difficulty = −5.1 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
party:
Democratic
seats after:
215
skill:
−5.1
topic:
elections
what happened:
215
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
85
baseline:
90
they said:
212
days before the vote when called:
16
difficulty:
1.02
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the naive guess said:
213
Think this is wrong?

Race Winners3 hits · 3 missesShow ▸

Tom Kean, Jr. to win the 2024 U.S. House election in New Jersey's district 7
“This has allowed the incumbent to remain a 63% favorite in our forecast.”
Thomas Kean Jr. woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.02 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-nj-07
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
a 63% favorite in our forecast
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Thomas Kean Jr.
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in New Jersey's district 7
decided in the:
general
they said:
Thomas Kean Jr.
days before the vote when called:
16
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Michelle Steel to win the 2024 U.S. House election in California's district 45
“Republican Michelle Steel is facing an extremely close reelection against Democrat Derek Tran, and she currently has just a 51% chance of winning”
Derek Tran woncalled Michelle Steel
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.02 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-house-ca-45
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
just a 51% chance of winning
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Derek Tran
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in California's district 45
decided in the:
general
they said:
Michelle Steel
days before the vote when called:
16
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Kamala Harris to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election
“Our forecast this week sees Kamala Harris' odds tick down a notch, from 55% to 53%. ... If you forced us to pick a winner from this incredibly uncertain picture, we'd still probably pick Harris”
Donald Trump woncalled Kamala Harris
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.02 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
odds tick down a notch, from 55% to 53%
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
16
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Will Rollins to win the 2024 U.S. House election in California's district 41
“Rollins still only has a 51% chance of winning”
Ken Calvert woncalled Will Rollins
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 1.02 difficulty = −102 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-house-ca-41
election year:
2024
skill:
−102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
a 51% chance of winning
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Ken Calvert
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in California's district 41
decided in the:
general
they said:
Will Rollins
days before the vote when called:
16
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Mike Braun (Republican) to win the 2024 Indiana gubernatorial election
“Indiana is moving from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Senator Mike Braun remains a strong favorite to keep the governorship in GOP hands”
Mike Braun woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.02 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-governor-in
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Likely Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-governor
who won:
Mike Braun
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 Indiana gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mike Braun
days before the vote when called:
16
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Republican to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
“data points to the Senate seat in Montana returning to the Republican column this cycle”
Tim Sheehy woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.02 difficulty = +102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-mt
election year:
2024
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Tim Sheehy
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tim Sheehy
days before the vote when called:
16
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

Race Margins2 close callsShow ▸

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez at 0.3 points in the 2024 U.S. House election in Washington's district 3
“our model currently gives her a 52% chance of winning reelection with a predicted margin of 0.3%”
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez won
65Close
65 − 70.2 naive = −5.2 × 1.02 difficulty = −5.3 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-house-wa-03
election year:
2024
skill:
−5.3
topic:
elections
what happened:
3.8
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin in points
whose number:
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
accuracy:
65
baseline:
70.2
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Washington's district 3
decided in the:
general
they said:
0.3
days before the vote when called:
16
difficulty:
1.02
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
3.8
their party:
Democratic
the naive guess said:
0.82
Think this is wrong?
Matt Cartwright at 1 points in the 2024 U.S. House election in Pennsylvania's district 8
“giving him a 56% chance of winning reelection with a predicted margin of 1%”
Rob Bresnahan won
74Close
74 − 59.6 naive = 14.4 × 1.02 difficulty = +14.69 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-house-pa-08
election year:
2024
skill:
14.69
topic:
elections
what happened:
−1.6
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Rob Bresnahan
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin in points
whose number:
Matt Cartwright
accuracy:
74
baseline:
59.6
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Pennsylvania's district 8
decided in the:
general
they said:
1
days before the vote when called:
16
difficulty:
1.02
they won:
no
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
1.6
their party:
Democratic
the naive guess said:
2.44
Think this is wrong?

Control of Congress1 hit · 1 missShow ▸

“Democrats now have a 53% chance of retaking the House from the GOP.”
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 1.02 difficulty = −102 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2024
skill:
−102
topic:
elections
in their words:
a 53% chance of retaking the House from the GOP
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
they said:
Democratic
days before the vote when called:
16
difficulty:
1.02
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
“Republicans remain firm favorites in 51 seats and are extremely likely to win back the majority this cycle”
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.02 difficulty = +102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2024
skill:
102
topic:
elections
in their words:
extremely likely to win back the majority this cycle
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
16
difficulty:
1.02
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

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