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Chris Brockman#36 of 87 NFL pundits · Dec 2, 2024

Brockman declares the road to the Super Bowl goes through Buffalo and Philadelphia — both will be No. 1 seeds — and they state outright that the Bills and Eagles will meet in the Super Bowl. They also say Russell Wilson has been a top-five quarterback since returning, predicts the Packers reach the divisional round again, and insists both the Chiefs and Ravens will be one-and-done in the playoffs (Houston beating Baltimore, Bo Nix's Broncos winning at Arrowhead).

Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original

3 of 8calls landed3 hits · 1 close call · 4 misses · all settled
43.8Average accuracyout of 100, across 8 calls
71.9A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
8 of 8Settlednone still waiting
#36Chris Brockman’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Chris Brockman said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
The road to the Super Bowl goes through Buffalo and Philadelphia.
Chris Brockman, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Overreaction Monday (podcast)
The episode
NFL Week 13: All stadiums should be domes!
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidDec 2, 2024
  2. GradedAug 13–17, 2026
  1. 1Philadelphia Eagles to take the top seed“what I'm saying is is that Buffalo and Philly are gonna be the one seats”
  2. 2Buffalo Bills to reach the Super Bowl“If you're coming on the air and saying, Bills and Eagles are gonna play in the Super Bowl I am.”
  3. 3Denver Broncos to beat Chiefs“So you think you think you think you you think Bo Nix I I do. First career playoff start I do. Goes into Kansas City and won and done them. Yeah. I think that's I think that's really possible.”
  4. 4Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl“If you're coming on the air and saying, Bills and Eagles are gonna play in the Super Bowl I am.”
  5. 5Buffalo Bills to take the top seed“what I'm saying is is that Buffalo and Philly are gonna be the one seats”
  6. 6Russell Wilson to finish top 5 at his position, by passing yards“Russell Wilson is a top five quarterback since he's been back.”
  7. 7Houston Texans to beat Ravens“You think the Ravens, lose in Houston? ... I kinda do, actually.”
  8. 8Green Bay Packers to make the playoffs“The Packers are gonna make it to the divisional round again.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Philadelphia Eagles to take the top seed1Seeding, Byes and Home Field—000
Buffalo Bills to reach the Super Bowl2Conference ChampionsPHI and KC won50100−66.5
Denver Broncos to beat Chiefs3Game Outcome Picks—1001000
Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl4Conference ChampionsPHI and KC won1001000
Buffalo Bills to take the top seed5Seeding, Byes and Home Field—0100−133
Russell Wilson to finish top 5 at his position, by passing yards6Positional FinishesFinished #22075−99.75
Houston Texans to beat Ravens7Game Outcome Picks—000
Green Bay Packers to make the playoffs8Playoff PicksMade the playoffs1001000
8 calls · 3 hits · 1 close call · 4 misses · all settled43.871.9

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

8 checkable claims — 2 conference champions, 2 game outcome picks, 2 seeding, byes and home field, 1 playoff pick and 1 positional finish — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 8 have settled, averaging 43.8 out of 100, against 71.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Seeding, Byes and Home FieldPhiladelphia Eagles

    Philadelphia Eagles to take the top seed

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.33difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    PHI
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    checked as:
    the number one seed is the bye, which the bracket names exactly
    actual tier:
    host
    difficulty:
    1.33
    the naive guess:
    where they finished last season (visitor)
    weeks in the season:
    18
    claimed seed:
    1
    claimed tier:
    bye
    weeks left when called:
    6
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Conference ChampionsBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills to reach the Super Bowl

    What happenedPHI and KC wonpicked BUF
    50Close · naive 100
    50this call100a naive guess−50worse than naive1.33difficulty−66.5skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    −66.5
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    50
    baseline:
    100
    champions:
    PHI, KC
    difficulty:
    1.33
    the naive guess:
    last season's conference champions
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    6
    reached the Super Bowl:
    no
    lost the conference final:
    yes
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Game Outcome PicksDenver Broncos

    Denver Broncos to beat Chiefs

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.33difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    DEN
    score:
    0-38
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    DEN
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DEN
    difficulty:
    1.33
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    6
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Conference ChampionsPhiladelphia Eagles

    Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl

    What happenedPHI and KC wonpicked PHI
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.33difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    PHI
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    champions:
    PHI, KC
    difficulty:
    1.33
    the naive guess:
    last season's conference champions
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    6
    reached the Super Bowl:
    yes
    lost the conference final:
    no
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Seeding, Byes and Home FieldBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills to take the top seed

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.33difficulty−133skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    −133
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    checked as:
    the number one seed is the bye, which the bracket names exactly
    actual tier:
    host
    difficulty:
    1.33
    the naive guess:
    where they finished last season (host)
    weeks in the season:
    18
    claimed seed:
    1
    claimed tier:
    bye
    weeks left when called:
    6
    Think this is wrong?

  6. 6Positional FinishesRussell WilsonPittsburgh Steelers

    Russell Wilson to finish top 5 at his position, by passing yards

    What happenedFinished #22called #5 · by passing yards
    0Miss · naive 75
    0this call75a naive guess−75worse than naive1.33difficulty−99.75skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    −99.75
    player:
    Russell Wilson
    season:
    2024
    zero credit this far off:
    12
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    75
    position:
    QB
    ranked by:
    passing yards
    difficulty:
    1.33
    the naive guess:
    where he finished last season
    weeks in the season:
    18
    naive finish:
    19
    actual finish:
    22
    weeks left when called:
    6
    predicted finish:
    5
    Think this is wrong?

  7. 7Game Outcome PicksHouston Texans

    Houston Texans to beat Ravens

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.33difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    BAL
    score:
    31-2
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    HOU
    difficulty:
    1.33
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    6
    Think this is wrong?

  8. 8Playoff PicksGreen Bay Packers

    Green Bay Packers to make the playoffs

    What happenedMade the playoffs
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.33difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    GB
    skill:
    0
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive guess said:
    yes
    difficulty:
    1.33
    weeks in the season:
    18
    made the playoffs:
    yes
    weeks left when called:
    6
    Think this is wrong?
  9. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 8 settled calls, each counted once

    43.8naive 71.9

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

More conference champions

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