Chris Brockman· Dec 2, 2024
Brockman declares the road to the Super Bowl goes through Buffalo and Philadelphia — both will be No. 1 seeds — and he states outright that the Bills and Eagles will meet in the Super Bowl. He also says Russell Wilson has been a top-five quarterback since returning, predicts the Packers reach the divisional round again, and insists both the Chiefs and Ravens will be one-and-done in the playoffs (Houston beating Baltimore, Bo Nix's Broncos winning at Arrowhead).
“The road to the Super Bowl goes through Buffalo and Philadelphia.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
8 checkable claims — 2 conference champions, 2 game outcome picks, 2 seeding, byes and home field, 1 playoff pick and 1 positional finishe — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 8 have settled, averaging 43.8 out of 100, against 71.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
8 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Philadelphia Eagles to take the top seed
“what I'm saying is is that Buffalo and Philly are gonna be the one seats”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- checked as:
- the number one seed is the bye, which the bracket names exactly
- actual tier:
- host
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- the naive guess:
- where they finished last season (visitor)
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- claimed seed:
- 1
- claimed tier:
- bye
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- Conference ChampionsBuffalo BillsDec 2, 2024
Buffalo Bills to reach the Super Bowl
“If you're coming on the air and saying, Bills and Eagles are gonna play in the Super Bowl I am.”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 100-66.5 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -66.5
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI,KC
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- yes
- Game Outcome PicksDenver BroncosDec 2, 2024
Denver Broncos to beat Chiefs
“So you think you think you think you you think Bo Nix I I do. First career playoff start I do. Goes into Kansas City and won and done them. Yeah. I think that's I think that's really possible.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 0-38
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DEN
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- Conference ChampionsPhiladelphia EaglesDec 2, 2024
Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl
“If you're coming on the air and saying, Bills and Eagles are gonna play in the Super Bowl I am.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI,KC
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- reached the Super Bowl:
- yes
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Seeding, Byes and Home FieldBuffalo BillsDec 2, 2024
Buffalo Bills to take the top seed
“what I'm saying is is that Buffalo and Philly are gonna be the one seats”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-133 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -133
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- checked as:
- the number one seed is the bye, which the bracket names exactly
- actual tier:
- host
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- the naive guess:
- where they finished last season (host)
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- claimed seed:
- 1
- claimed tier:
- bye
- weeks left when called:
- 6
Russell Wilson to finish top 5 at his position, by passing yards
“Russell Wilson is a top five quarterback since he's been back.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 75-99.75 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -99.75
- player:
- Russell Wilson
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 75
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 19
- actual finish:
- 22
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- predicted finish:
- 5
- Game Outcome PicksHouston TexansDec 2, 2024
Houston Texans to beat Ravens
“You think the Ravens, lose in Houston? ... I kinda do, actually.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BAL
- score:
- 31-2
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- Playoff PicksGreen Bay PackersDec 2, 2024
Green Bay Packers to make the playoffs
“The Packers are gonna make it to the divisional round again.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- GB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 6
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Denver BroncosHit · 98Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Philadelphia EaglesMiss · 0Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 10Simms picked the Packers to beat the Falcons in the Thursday night game by a low score, expecting a defensive struggle.
- Matt HarmonScore Predictions · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Damonza ByrdConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says he believes New England will win in Denver even though he is taking the Broncos with the points.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · New England PatriotsHit · 100The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; he also picks New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. He calls Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.
- AJ HawkConference Champions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 50Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC he stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl.
- Derek MurphyConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.
- Connor "Boston Connor" CampbellConference Champions · New England PatriotsHit · 100Connor expects a tight first half in Denver before New England pulls away in the second half and advances to the Super Bowl.
- Gregg RosenthalConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Rosenthal picks the Patriots to beat the Broncos in a close, low-scoring AFC Championship in Denver (while liking Denver to cover the 4.5 points), takes the Seahawks over the Rams in a defensive NFC Championship he pegs around 23-19, and forecasts a Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl.