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2026 Iowa gubernatorial election

Governors · November 3, 2026 · not yet held

The ballot

Beside the pundits

Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.

The market · Polymarket · October 3, 2026

  • Rob Sand85¢
  • Zach Lahn14¢

A price in cents is the market's probability. Prices move; this is the day's close as we read it.

The polls · VoteHub · 3 polls in 21 days · through September 28, 2026

  • Rob Sand51.0%
  • Zach Lahn42.7%

Rob Sand by 8.3 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.

The 12 most recent polls
PollsterDatesSampleResult
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · for Fox News2026-09-24 – 2026-09-281008 LVRob Sand 53% · Zach Lahn 44%
Marist University2026-09-17 – 2026-09-201050 RVRob Sand 54% · Zach Lahn 42%
co/efficient (REP)2026-09-14 – 2026-09-16831 LVRob Sand 46% · Zach Lahn 42%
YouGov2026-09-03 – 2026-09-082041 LVRob Sand 51% · Zach Lahn 41%
YouGov2026-09-03 – 2026-09-082167 RVRob Sand 50% · Zach Lahn 39%
Emerson College · for Nexstar Media2026-08-31 – 2026-09-01750 LVRob Sand 49% · Zach Lahn 46%
Wedgewood Polls2026-08-27 – 2026-08-29600 LVRob Sand 51% · Zach Lahn 46%
Suffolk University2026-08-20 – 2026-08-23500 LVRob Sand 47.8% · Zach Lahn 43.6%
Emerson College · for Nexstar Media2026-08-02 – 2026-08-04712 LVRob Sand 48% · Zach Lahn 43%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · for Fox News2026-06-23 – 2026-06-271003 RVRob Sand 53% · Zach Lahn 44%
Cygnal (REP) · for Iowans for Tax Relief2026-06-16 – 2026-06-19600 LVRob Sand 47.7% · Zach Lahn 43.4%
The New York Times/Siena University2026-06-15 – 2026-06-17600 LVRob Sand 48% · Zach Lahn 47%

The field, week by week

Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.

Sep 20Sep 27Oct 4
Rob Sand 3· 3 pundits on record this week

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Every claim about this race (4)

Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.